Top NBA Betting Picks for Thursday, September 17th
The NBA playoffs have picked up and been quite the show with both Conference Finals matchups set. Tuesday gave us some exciting games with the Miami Heat sneaking past the Boston Celtics in overtime, and the Denver Nuggets come back from down 3-1, AGAIN, and beating the L.A. Clippers.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for September 17th, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Goran Dragic over 18.5 points (-110)
- His 29 points in Game 1 was the second-highest postseason total of his career (30)
- Averaged 22.8 points per game in the first round
- Averaging 19.8 points per game in the semifinals
- Has scored 20 or more points in his last three games versus Boston and four of the previous five
Goran Dragic scored 29 points in Game 1 versus the Celtics on 11-of-19 shooting (57.9%) from the field and 3-of-6 from deep (50%). He also visited the free-throw line four times, making all four freebies in 39 total minutes. He’s played 39 and 40 minutes in two of the last three games for the Heat, his two-highest totals of the 2019-20 postseason. He’s made two or more three-pointers in eight-of-10 playoff games and shot 36.8% and 40.3% from deep in both postseason series.
Dragic averaged 16.0 and 18.8 field-goal attempts in the first two rounds, shooting 44.1% and 48.8%. When he’s attempted at least 17 field-goal shots, he’s averaged 22.8 points per game, and that number increases to 25.3 per game when Dragic attempts 19 or more as he did in Game 1. If you’ve been riding Dragic, you’ve likely made some decent coin through the postseason as he’s scored 20 or more points in seven-of-10 postseason games.
Heat vs Celtics Under 209 (-117)
In the first and third quarters of Game 1, both teams combined for 44 points, but the second quarter killed the under, totaling 67 points. Over the final 12 minutes of regulation, both teams combined for 58 points, with the Heat scoring 35 to the Celtics’ 23 to force overtime. The over hit with seconds left before overtime. The total was 209, and regulation ended tied at 106 with a couple of late three-pointers and free-throws.
Versus each other across four meetings, the 117 and 114 points scored were the most against each other. In their four meetings, Miami has scored 93, 101, 112, and 117 compared to Boston’s 112, 109, 106, and 114 points. The under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings, 7-3 in the Heat’s last 10 overall, and 8-2 in the Celtics last 10 overall.
The Celtics held the Raptors to 99.7 points per game across seven games, allowing them to record 100 or fewer in five-of-seven games. The Heat held the Bucks to 104 points or less in three-of-five games in the semifinals, so both teams have shown the ability to shut down their opponent.
In the postseason alone, both teams are ranked first and second in points allowed per game and opponent three-pointers made per game. Miami shot 44% from deep, and Boston 36% in Game 1 on a combined 31 makes on 78 attempts. I expect both teams three-point percentage and the number of makes to be lower and harder to come by in Game 2.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.