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Top NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, March 16

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We have an intriguing seven-game slate on tap for tonight, and C.J. McCollum’s return to the Portland Trail Blazers headlines the action. Will his return be enough for Portland to cover? Our experts are split on that question.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Tuesday, March 16, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Bisson: Trail Blazers -1.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
It’s nice to see the Trail Blazers get some good injury news for a change. Guard C.J. McCollum will return Monday night after he suffered a foot injury that has kept him out of action since mid-January. His return should invigorate a Portland squad that ranks third-last in defensive rating for the season. Don’t expect the Blazers to ease McCollum back into the lineup – and with Damian Lillard’s backcourt-mate averaging 26.7 points for the season, his return makes the Blazers a great pick against the spread.

Sirois: Hawks -9 (-110 at DK Sportsbook)
Can we trust the Hawks to cover against bad teams? Since the team fired Lloyd Pierce, the Hawks have gone 2-2 ATS when favored. They have looked better at home than on the road, but tonight’s matchup is particularly juicy. The Rockets are a pathetic 3-13 ATS in Houston, the worst home record in the league by a wide margin. The Hawks are an uninspiring 9-10-1 ATS on the road this year, but that’s pretty good in comparison. The Rockets haven’t won since Feb. 4, the last game that Christian Wood played, and they remain a team to target on the betting market. With Eric Gordon and John Wall out (and Wood doubtful), the Hawks should cover tonight. My NBA betting model favors them by a 9.6-point margin, which gives us a little bit of edge at most books.

Top Team Prop of the Day

Bisson: Hawks Over 117.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
Who’s playing for the Rockets tonight? Who cares? Houston has lost 16 consecutive games and will field some sort of patchwork lineup against a Hawks team that has reeled off five consecutive victories. And even though Atlanta is also dealing with injury absences, there’s little standing between Trae Young and a 40-point performance in this one. Look for the Hawks to put up some video-game numbers against what is presently the worst active roster in the NBA.

Sirois: Pelicans Over 118.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
This is a battle of awful defenses. The Pelicans rank third-worst in defensive efficiency, while the Trail Blazers rank second-worst. Portland falls to dead last over the last three games, too. Meanwhile, the Pels rank seventh in offensive efficiency, and they rank fifth in points per game (115.7). Their games also have the highest over percentage in the NBA (71.8%). These teams have met once before this season, and New Orleans posted 124 points in a losing effort. I expect another high-scoring battle with C.J. McCollum back for the Blazers, so look for the Pelicans to surpass their team total.

Top Player Prop of the Day

Bisson: Damian Lillard Under 29.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The McCollum Factor has certainly played into Lillard’s growing scoring average. Lillard averages 27.6 points in 13 games with McCollum in the lineup this season, and 32.1 ppg in 24 games with McCollum sidelined. Look for Dame to gladly defer to his teammate now that he’s back in action.

Sirois: R.J. Barrett Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-120 at FD Sportsbook)
The sportsbooks don’t respect Barrett, but it’s their loss. Barrett has averaged 31 points and rebounds per game since the All-Star Break. He has surpassed this total in each game. He has also gone 6-1 against this total over his last seven outings. Since the Knicks should remain without both Derrick Rose and Elfrid Payton tonight, Barrett will have to keep playing in a higher-volume role. That’s good news for him, as the 76ers give up the most points per game to shooting guards, where he currently spends a majority of his minutes. I’m not worried about the fact this is a back-to-back, as Tom Thibodeau has routinely let the 20-year-old play deep into games despite a lack of rest.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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