Top NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 5
With the NBA playoffs fast approaching, some big-name teams will have to fight to stay out of the play-in tournament. As the drama unfolds, we’ll be here to provide you with our leans and locks for each day of action.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Wednesday, May 5, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
Betting Lock of the Day
Sirois: Knicks +4 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
My NBA betting model, which is currently 6-1-1 at predicting ATS locks, views this line as yet another. It does so for two key reasons. First, the efficiency metrics actually favor the Knicks here — they outrank the Nuggets in defensive efficiency on the year (3rd to 12th) and through the last three games (4th to 9th); they also outrank the Nuggets in offensive efficiency over the last three, too (5th to 13th). By combining efficiency and pace data, the model favors New York to win by 0.39 points. Second, the Knicks have a phenomenal record against the spread on the road — they have gone 21-11 ATS away from home, second-best in the NBA. Although the Knicks may not have Nerlens Noel (Q) or Norvell Pelle (Q) tonight, the Knicks will have enough talent to cover, especially given Denver’s lengthy injury report.
Top Game Prop of the Day
Sirois: Knicks and Nuggets First Half Under 110 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)
If you’re worried about the full-game spread, this total is a smart pivot. Both of these teams have stingy first-half defenses — the Knicks give up the fewest points per first half (52.2), and the Nuggets give up the fifth-fewest (54.3). The Knicks don’t score many first-half points (54.9) because of their NBA-slowest pace, and although the Nuggets score the third-most first-half points (59.2), they have fallen off without Jamal Murray. They have averaged only 51 first-half points through their last three games, and the team now ranks as the NBA’s fourth slowest. I suspect that trend will continue tonight, as Will Barton, PJ Dozier, and Monte Morris will all miss this contest.
Top Player Prop of the Day
Sirois: Davis Bertans Over 10.5 Points (-116 at FD Sportsbook)
The Milwaukee Bucks give up the most made threes per game (14.6). Things have only gotten worse for them recently, as they have allowed 15.7 over their last three games. The Nets just hit 20 three-pointers against them last night! Enter Bertans. He leads the Wizards in made (2.9) and attempted (7.4) threes per game, so look for him to exploit Milwaukee’s vulnerable perimeter defense. For some perspective, the odds for him to hit at least three three-point shots sits at -200. If he can pull that off, he’d only need a layup, dunk, two free throws, or another three-pointer to cash this prop. It helps that the Bucks surrender the third-most made threes per game to power forwards (2.7).
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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