Top NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 23rd
The NBA playoffs have picked up, and it’s been quite the show in both Conference Finals. Tuesday gave us an exciting game between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. Tonight, the Miami Heat look to build on their 2-1 series lead after the Boston Celtics won Game 3 to dodge a 3-0 deficit.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for September 23rd, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Jayson Tatum to double-double (+105)
- Tatum double-doubled in eight of 14 playoff games.
- Tatum leads both teams in the series with 33 rebounds.
- Tatum is averaging 11.0 rebounds per game in the ECF.
- Tatum has averaged 10.3 rebounds per game in the 2019-20 postseason.
I don’t need to go into details about why Jayson Tatum will score 10 points, but for the 10 rebound part, I should have to. He’s been a walking bucket all postseason, averaging a team-high 25.3 points per game in addition to 10.3 rebounds, up from his regular-season mark of 7.0 per game.
Tatum has recorded nine or more rebounds in 10 of 14 postseason games, earning a double-double in eight of those. He’s averaged 11.0 in the ECF after recording 14 rebounds each in Games 1 and 3 and five in Game 2’s loss.
In his last 10 games, he’s totaled nine or more rebounds in eight games and has had 10 or more in six of them. In the semifinals, Tatum recorded 9, 8, 9. 10, 10, 14, and 12, in that order. He started the ECF off with 14, 5, and 14 boards. In the first round overall, Tatum had two games of 13 and 15 boards, and two of 5 and 6.
Against the Heat, Tatum has 33 total rebounds in three postseason games, the most in the series, and one more than Miami center Bam Adebayo. Tatum also leads the series in scoring with 76 points, exceeding 20 points in all three games. He’s the best bet of the Celtics to get a double-double, ahead of Jaylen Brown and Daniel Theis. Tatum and Adebayo are the only players in this series to average a double-double in the postseason, and I’m expecting Tatum to lead the charge tonight to even the series at 2-2.
Celtics ML (-159)
The Celtics started the semifinals 2-0 and let Games 3 and 4 slip away before rallying back to win the seven-game series. In the ECF, Boston’s role has been reversed — they lost Games 1 and 2, only to steal Game 3.
Game 4 will be one hell of a contest between two of the youngest and most exciting teams in the NBA. For Boston, Gordon Hayward returned after missing Game 2 of the first round onward. He played 31 minutes off the bench, which was a positive sign, especially since they earned the win. Boston dominated the interior of the Game 3, as they shot 50 percent from the floor, outscored Miami 60-36 in the paint, and outshot them 36 percent to 33 percent from deep.
Jaylen Brown (26), Marcus Smart (20), Jayson Tatum (25), and Kemba Walker (21) all scored 20 points or more in Game 3, and they gave Miami problems from everywhere. The four combined 7-for-19 from deep and still scored 117 points on Miami. Jimmy Butler was benched for the final 46 seconds of Game 3, and the Heat got outscored 6-2 with him on the bench. He should have a fire lit under him for Game 4, and the rest of the team should be on pins and needles after losing the opportunity at a 3-0 lead in the ECF.
The spread is -3, which is tempting, but Miami has shown that they can rally back from any time. In Game 2, they trailed 60-48 at halftime and stormed back to win 106-101, outscoring Boston 58-41 in the second half. The Celtics are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on three days or more of rest, and they’re also 23-8-1 ATS in their previous 32 playoff games as a favorite.
The Heat, on the other hand, have been excellent in the ECF ATS. The Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last eight ECF games compared to the Celtics 1-4 mark in their last five. Miami is 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games overall (the entire postseason), and that’s what is preventing me from taking the Boston spread. A straight-up win is more than enough in Game 4, and live betting is going to be the best way to make great money on this matchup.
Miami has fallen behind by double digits multiple times in this series. With Boston owning the momentum and the previous win, you will probably be able to grab Miami at some point as +250 or better on the ML. I’ll be keeping an eye open all game for the Heat to cover a +6 live bet point spread or more, rather than their +3-point spread now. If the Heat ML drops to +250 or better when they’re down, I will say that they’re a must-take with how the 2020 NBA postseason has shaken out.
I’m riding with Boston ML before Game 4 to even the series 2-2. This series will go seven games, and I’m expecting another close, hard-fought contest tonight with both teams having four days off to rest.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.