Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/5)
We have a big NBA slate on tap tonight, so add some interest by tailing our top plays for Friday night’s action.
Friday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers (-5.5) | O/U 234.5 (-110/-110)
It’s been hard times for the Thunder, as they are 1-2 on their current road trip, but they’ve faced the Knicks, Celtics, and the 76ers with a returning Joel Embiid. OKC can’t drop further than the third seed, so they’re at least guaranteed one series with home advantage, which means they’ll likely be resting players. That’s why you’re seeing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already ruled out and Jalen Allen listed as doubtful.
The Pacers don’t have that luxury in a tight Eastern Conference race. They are currently holding a half-game lead for the sixth spot, but Miami is right behind them, and Philadelphia looks great with Embiid back in the lineup. Myles Turner is the only one currently listed on the injury report, but he’s their best defender and with this team already one of the worst defensively, not having him would make it even tougher.
I cannot believe how high this total is sitting with no SGA. Even with both teams having healthy lineups, they didn’t hit this number. Go with the Under.
Pick: Under 234.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5) | O/U 228 (-110/-110)
The Warriors have established a little bit of breathing room as they’ve won six straight, including against 11th-seeded Houston, and they hold a four-game lead in tenth place. The defense has been the worst part of their game for most of the season, but it has stepped up big during this winning streak. They are fourth in defensive rating and are dominating the boards at sixth in defensive rebounds.
It’s not just in the one area that they are shutting down opponents; Golden State is allowing the fourth-lowest field goal percentage from 25-29 feet and ninth-lowest from 5-9 feet. Dallas likes to shoot from the perimeter and behind the arc, and in the last game on Tuesday, they hit all of their averages from three. However, Golden State did a great job of boxing them out, grabbing the defensive rebounds, and not letting them get second chances.
This is another game where the total feels way off. They had 254 total points in the first matchup in December, but in the two more recent games, the total was 208 and 204. With how well the Warriors and Mavericks have been on defense, this should be another low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 208 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-4) | O/U 218 (-110/-110)
Minnesota has regained the Western Conference’s top spot and is playing well, winning nine of their last eleven games. The best defense in the league continues to drive this team; they are one of the few teams in the league that are near the top in opponents’ two-point and three-point percentages, so no matter where you are on the floor, they will pressure you.
We’ll see how effective that is against Phoenix, one of the teams with a high field goal efficiency rate from anywhere on the floor. What makes them a tough offense to figure out is that they don’t prefer to shoot from one particular range; they are in the bottom ten in the rim, mid-range, and three-point shot distribution percentage because they are basically even in all three aspects.
One of Minnesota’s weak points is allowing offensive rebounds, and Phoenix has the third-best offensive box rate and sixth-best offensive box-out percentage. If they can get second chances, they should get the win.
Pick: Suns -3 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: