Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/11)
The eyes of the country will shift to football on Sunday evening. But if you’re looking for some pregame action, there’s a small slate of NBA games in the afternoon. The Celtics will travel to Miami for a rematch of the last two Eastern Conference Finals, while the Kings head to Oklahoma City to take on the young, exciting Thunder. Here are my favorite bets from the slate.
Sunday’s Top NBA Bets
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
After dropping seven games in a row last month, the Heat have started to turn things around. They’ve won four of their last five, going 3-2 ATS. They host a Boston team that remains in the midst of an excellent season. Like we’ve seen often over the last few years, this should be a fascinating matchup. In addition to the entertainment factor, there is value on both the spread and the total.
Boston has dominated their competition this season when it comes to wins and losses, but they haven’t been particularly impressive ATS. They’re currently 24-26-2 on the season, but they’ve gone only 3-7 in their last 10 games ATS. However, Miami hasn’t exactly been world beaters either. They’ve amassed a 23-27-2 ATS record themselves.
Boston is the much better team here. Miami is struggling again after sneaking into the playoffs and then making a deep run last year. That playoff run is affecting this number too much. Boston should probably be an eight-or-so-point favorite, even on the road. Offensively, they’ve been one of the best shooting teams in the league, and they take care of the ball at a top-five rate in the league. But it’s the defense that has made them stand out. They’re limiting opponents to 52.1% eFG%, which is good for second-best in the league. Additionally, they don’t foul and send opponents to the line for free points.
Miami’s offense has picked up over the last week even though they aren’t a team that particularly shoots well, 23rd in eFG%. But they do get to the free-throw line at the sixth-best rate in the league. The matchups indicate Boston has an edge there but there is a precedent to these teams scoring in these matchups.
The first two meetings between these two teams resulted in totals of 130 and 153. Boston shot lights out from three, resulting in 38 combined 3PMs. Miami gives up 3PA at a higher rate than almost every team in the league, and Boston is a good shooting team, connecting on 37.8% from deep on the season. They should have no trouble scoring on Miami, and their long-range shooting should be what helps them pull away like it has in the first two meetings.
Picks: Celtics -5.5 (-110) | Over 225 (-110)
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will be playing the second game of a back-to-back as they welcome the Kings into town. This has been a situation where they’ve done decently, going both 3-3 SU and ATS on the second night of back-to-backs. Including some impressive offensive performances.
Oklahoma City has thrived on both sides of the ball as they’re top five in both adjusted offensive and defensive ratings. They’re an excellent shooting team, and they’re going up against a Sacramento team that is 26th in opponent eFG%. Even on the back-to-back, where legs can get tired, Sacramento won’t provide much of a resistance on the defensive end.
On the other side of the ball, it’s the defense for Oklahoma City that has struggled a bit recently. They gave up 110 in regulation to the Raptors, then 124 to Utah, and followed up with 143 against Dallas on Saturday. The Kings are a good shooting team, and they like to play fast on offense, which could tax tired legs on the Thunder. It’s shaping up for another rough defensive performance for Oklahoma City.
Both teams should be able to light up the scoreboard. The books have set a high total, but if there is any matchup capable of hitting an over, it’s these two teams. Look for some real fireworks to get you primed for Sunday night’s football game.
Pick: Over 240 (-110)