Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (3/10)
The NBA has cooked up another excellent Sunday slate for this week. There are some really good matchups on the schedule as well as some really strong edges. Let's take a deeper look at some of the matchups and find some best bets for the Sunday card.
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Sunday’s NBA Best Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
The Wizards snapped their long losing streak on Friday and come into this matchup with Miami riding high. However, I don't expect the good feelings to last long as Miami is playing some of their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks. They're 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS, losing straight up only to some of the best teams in the league.
An improved offense has helped lead this surge. They still come into this game ranked 22nd in offensive rating, but they've managed 115 of more in seven of these last 13 games. They'll match up with a Washington defense that is dead last in defensive rating, so I like the chances of them keeping up the improved offensive play.
For Washington offensively it will be a struggle to score on this strong Miami defense. The Wizards don't take care of the ball, they don't crash the offensive boards and they don't get themselves to the free throw line. These are all things that Miami prevents their opponents from doing in spades. If Washington can't do their part offensively to keep this game close, I don't think their defense will do much either. This is a recipe for a blowout and I'll take the Heat on the large spread.
Pick: Heat -9.5 (-140)
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic have burst back onto the scene after the All-Star break and have been climbing up the East standings. They've gone 13-4 in their last 17 games and it's been led by an elite defensive effort. The young team has managed a top-four defensive rating, holding teams to low point totals.
Indiana is a team that has had surprises this season but for different reasons. Indiana has rode a second-best offensive rating to a likely playoff berth. Their defense however has struggled, ranking 26th in defensive rating. However, like much of the league, they've been trending towards Unders recently. The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Pacer games, so it appears books still haven't caught up.
This current line is too high even for a team with an elite offense and poor defense like Indiana. Orlando has been able to dictate the pace in their recent matchups and should be able to do so against the Pacers. Indiana will be without Bennedict Mathurin for the rest of the season and the offense is going to miss his contributions. Orlando's defense should disrupt Indiana enough to throw them off their league-best eFG% and send the game to an Under.
Pick: Under 228.5 Total Points (-160)
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks
Both New Orleans and Atlanta are jockeying for position in their respective conference playoff pictures. The advanced stats love New Orleans, who sit as the fourth-ranked team by net rating in the league although their record is only good enough for the fifth seed in the Western Conference. Their defense has been carrying them, but it's their offense that will shine in this game.
Atlanta has struggled on defense this season. They rank 29th in defensive rating and have an opponent eFG% and offensive rebounding rate that ranks near last in the league. New Orleans isn't elite, but they're better than league average in both of those categories. The Pelicans have the capability to slow Atlanta's offensive attack down while the Hawks will have a tough time stopping New Orleans.
The Pels have also been playing some of their best basketball recently. They're 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS over their last 16. This game is a mismatch and New Orleans has the advantage on both sides of the court. I like them to cover and round out my Sunday best bet betting card.
Pick: Pelicans -5.5 (-165)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: