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Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC South (2022)

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Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.

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Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 463.25 376.75 10.5 11.5
New Orleans Saints 372.5 377.5 8.4 8.5
Carolina Panthers 346 402.5 7.0 6.5
Atlanta Falcons 340.75 438.25 6.0 5.0

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Tampa Tom is returning for one more, and Vegas expects this unit to score the most points of any NFL team (463.25) after scoring the second-most (511) in 2021. There is no doubt that this is a conservative number given that the team is favored in all but one game: a week 14 pick ’em’ against San Francisco.
  • On defense, this team is expected to resemble the same unit that allowed the 5th fewest points in 2021. The team is expected to allow 376.75 points, 23 more than their 2021 total, and the 7th fewest.

Bet: At the end of the day, there’s no betting against Tom Brady. Give me all the overs, championships, and maybe even a Super Bowl. Tom Brady is just that dude.

New Orleans Saints

  • Before losing Jameis Winston in week 8 of 2021, the Saints averaged 23.3 points per game. The remainder of the season was bleak with the Saints going 4-6, but fans have reason to be optimistic about 2022 with Michael Thomas returning and the addition of Ohio State stand-out Chris Olave.
  • That is until you consider Vegas projects this unit to score 20.4 points per game and just 8.5 more total (372.5) than they scored last season (364). Not much is expected to change on defense, and the Pythagorean win total sits right at their 8.5 vegas line.
  • Vegas totals don’t tell us much else other than this team will be nothing but average. They have a nearly non-existent chance to win the division and the 9th-hardest strength of schedule.

Bet: I’d stay away from all things New Orleans.

Carolina Panthers

  • Baker Mayfield is a Carolina Panther, and I’m not sure that changes anyone’s outlook. Vegas still has Carolina’s win total sitting at 6.5 – a number backed by their Pythagorean win total.
  • Carolina is projected to score 346 points and allow 402.5; both numbers project to be bottom ten in the league. The good news is the Panthers have a Pythagorean win total of 7.
  • It’s certainly possible that Baker Mayfield and a healthy Christian McCaffery will bring life back to this mediocre offense since 2017. After all, Baker Mayfield has a .500 record as a starter and is joining a team that’s seen several successful seasons in the past few decades (sorry, Browns fans).

Bet: I’ll lean over 6.5 wins at plus money but will personally stay away. 

Atlanta Falcons

  • Atlanta has not posted a winning season since their 2017 Super Bowl hangover. Last season was the first time Matt Ryan failed to finish in the top 10 quarterbacks by passing yardage since 2009. Sure, some of that is his age, but the Falcons roster has been underwhelming.
  • In 2022, the Falcons are expected to start Marcus Mariota and are projected to finish with 340.75 points, the second-fewest; and allow 438.25, the second most. In 2021, the Falcons allowed 459 points, the third most.

Bet: So much will have to go right for this Atlanta Falcons team to show life on offense. The Pythagorean expected win total for Atlanta is a solid 6.0 wins, which provides some room to bet over five wins, but the Falcons are only favored in 2 games this season (the second-fewest). I won’t find myself betting on this team.

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