Top NFL Player Props: Super Bowl LVI (2022)
We’ll find other things to bet on, of course. March Madness. The Masters. The NBA and NHL. MLB (hopefully).
But we’ll miss the NFL. Oh, how we’ll miss betting on the NFL.
Let’s go out with a bang. Here are my favorite player props for Super Bowl LVI.
- Last week’s bets: 2-3
- Season record: 67-50
Special Offer: Bet $5, Win $100 if Either the Rams or Bengals Score a TD >>
Joe Burrow UNDER 280.5 passing yards
Will Burrow get the time in the pocket he needs to beat a fairly high yardage total? Magic 8-Ball says: “Outlook not so good.†Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times during the regular season. The Rams recorded 50 regular-season sacks, the third-highest total in the league. Rams DT Aaron Donald and edge rushers Von Miller and Leonard Floyd might simply overwhelm the Bengals’ offensive line. Burrow has beaten this number in just one of his three playoff starts. The Rams gave up 241.7 passing yards per game during the regular season and have yielded an average of 232.7 passing yards in three playoff games. Tom Brady threw for 329 yards against the Rams in the divisional round but needed 54 pass attempts to get there, as the Buccaneers fell behind 27-3 and had to throw on almost every down to catch up. Cincinnati will have to make an earnest attempt to run the ball to keep the L.A. pass rush at bay, so Burrow might not have the sort of passing volume he needs to hit such a big number.
View all Joe Burrow prop bet odds >>
Cam Akers UNDER 16.5 rushing attempts
In his improbable comeback from a late-summer Achilles tear, Akers had 17 carries against the Cardinals in the wild-card round and 24 carries against the Buccaneers in the divisional round. He played 81% of the Rams’ offensive snaps in that win over the Buccaneers, but Akers averaged just 2.0 yards per carry in that game, and the Rams then scaled back his usage in the NFC Championship Game. Sony Michel out-snapped Akers 44-30 in the NFC title game. Akers had 14 carries, Michel 10. If we get something close to an even workload split in the Super Bowl, Akers has almost no chance of hitting this number. Even if the Rams use Akers in a workhorse role, Akers could fall short of 17 carries if the Rams fall behind and have a pass-heavy game script – or just have a pass-heavy game script. That wouldn’t be unusual against Cincinnati’s pass-funnel defense. The Bengals yielded an average of 19.2 rushing attempts to opposing RBs during the regular season, tied for the fourth-lowest total in the league.
View all Cam Akers prop bet odds >>
Cooper Kupp OVER 103.5 receiving yards
The sportsbooks have been steadily ratcheting up the yardage totals for Kupp all season, and they still can’t seem to set them high enough. So far in the playoffs, Kupp had 61 yards in an easy win over the Cardinals, 183 yards against the Buccaneers and 142 yards against the 49ers. He’s topped this number in seven of his last nine games and in 13 of 20 games this season, playoffs included. The Bengals have given up more receptions to slot receivers than any other team this season, according to PFF’s Andrew Erickson. I also like the over on 8.5 receptions for Kupp – an even-money wager on DraftKings as of Wednesday night – but the over on yardage seems like more of a slam dunk.
View all Cooper Kupp prop bet odds >>
Tyler Boyd OVER 42.5 receiving yards
Boyd averaged 51.8 receiving yards per game during the regular season but has averaged only 20.7 receiving yards over the Bengals’ three playoff games. So, why feel good about Boyd’s chance of beating this number? Well, Boyd is a short-area receiver whose average depth of target is 7.7 yards. To negate the Rams’ pass rush, Bengals QB Joe Burrow will need to get rid of the ball quickly, and that would seem to play into Boyd’s hands. So does the fact that the Rams are one of the most zone-heavy teams in the league. Boyd gets a favorable individual matchup against Rams slot corner David Long Jr., whom PFF graded 76th out of 120 graded cornerbacks. And the Bengals could be without TE C.J. Uzomah, who has a sprained MCL. If Uzomah is out, Boyd figures to pick up an extra target or two.
View all Tyler Boyd prop bet odds >>
Samaje Perine OVER 10.5 receiving yards
Perine had three catches for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and he’s beaten this number in 11 of 18 games this season. This is another instance where we need to think about how the Rams’ pass rush might influence the Bengals’ game plan. Perine and Joe Mixon are going to be important safety valves if the Bengals’ offensive line can’t keep Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Co. away from QB Joe Burrow.
View all Samaje Perine prop bet odds >>
View the best player prop bets for the Super Bowl LVI with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.