Top NFL Player Props: Week 10 (2021)
With injuries and COVID-19 cases wreaking havoc with the Week 10 slate, there’s a somewhat limited menu of player prop options on DraftKings this week. But there are still a handful of props that look pretty scrumptious, and most of them are unders.
Please pardon me if I’m a little rusty. I had a rough time in Week 8, going 3-5, then went on vacation in Week 9. Yes, it was an actual vacation – I wasn’t banished after the bad week.
- Last week’s bets: 0-0
- Season record: 22-13
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Corey Davis UNDER 45.5 receiving yards
Davis is returning from a hip injury that kept him sidelined in Weeks 8-9, so he might be a tad rusty. Mike White is making another start at quarterback for the Jets in place of the injured Zach Wilson, and White has been a check-down machine, peppering his running backs with targets. Rookie WR Elijah Moore has been coming on, and WR Jamison Crowder is sure to get some short-area targets as well. The biggest problem for Davis isn’t in-house target competition, but rather a matchup against the Bills, who have the stingiest defense in the league. Buffalo has allowed five TD catches and 14 receptions of 20 yards or more – both league lows. The Bills are giving up just 189.1 passing yards a game
Kirk Cousins UNDER 268.5 passing yards
The Minnesota passing game has been slumping. Cousins threw for 184 yards against Dallas in Week 8 and 187 yards against Baltimore in Week 9, averaging only 5.9 yards per pass attempt in those two games. The Vikings go on the road this week to face a run-funnel Chargers defense. Opponents have run the ball on 50% of their offensive snaps against the Chargers. (The league average is 41%.) The Chargers are allowing 197.0 passing yards per game, fewer than any other team except the Bills.
Mecole Hardman UNDER 40.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs’ offense has been reeling for the last three weeks, averaging 215.7 passing yards and 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Hardman’s yardage totals over that three-game stretch: 28, 63, 20. After averaging 20.7 yards per catch as a rookie in 2019, Hardman is averaging a mere 9.8 yards per catch this year, and his average depth of target is seven yards. On Sunday night, he’ll be facing a Raiders defense that’s been good against the pass and very good against wide receivers. Las Vegas is allowing 207.1 passing yards per game, and just 55% of the passing yardage they’ve allowed has gone to wide receivers – the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Antonio Gibson UNDER 46.5 rushing yards
This one seems like low-hanging fruit. Gibson is a terrific player, but he’s been dealing with a stress fracture in his shin that has diminished his usage and his effectiveness. He’s averaged 10.7 carries and 43.0 rushing yards over his last three games, and that was against the Chiefs, Packers, and Broncos, whose run defenses all rank 22nd or worse in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Gibson’s snap shares in those three games ranged from 33% to 42%. This week, Gibson faces a Buccaneers defense that’s giving up 78.0 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry.
D.K. Metcalf OVER 69.5 receiving yards
Finally, an over. Metcalf is averaging 72.5 receiving yards per game, and that includes 3.5 games with Geno Smith as his quarterback. QB Russell Wilson is returning from a finger injury this week, raising the ceiling for Metcalf and the other Seattle pass catchers. Metcalf also gets a scrumptious individual matchup this week with Packers CB Kevin King. PFF gives King a respectable grade for his pass coverage this season, but as a Packers fan who watches the team intently every week, I consider King a major liability on coverage. I think Metcalf is going to filet King this week.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.