Top NFL Player Props: Week 11 (2021)
Last week was a complete dumpster fire, with only one of my five selections coming through. Simply put, I was hot garbage juice.
There’s only one way to bounce back from that mess. It’s time to double up to catch up. After making five picks last week, I’m making 11 picks this week. My rebound recipe: bet on good players, bet against bad quarterbacks.
I feel good about these picks. In fact, I guarantee* a winning week.
(*Not a guarantee)
- Last week’s bets: 1-4
- Season record: 23-17
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Kirk Cousins UNDER 267.5 passing yards
I mentioned that betting against bad quarterbacks was part of my rebound recipe. Cousins isn’t a bad quarterback, but he has a tough matchup against Green Bay on Sunday. In their last three games, the Packers faced Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. That’s a murderers’ row of QBs, and Green Bay held them to an average of 200.3 passing yards per game and 5.46 yards per attempt. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry has been working magic lately, and I suspect the Vikings will go run-heavy with Dalvin Cook this week rather than put a big divisional game on Cousins’ shoulders.
Justin Fields UNDER 210.5 passing yards
Fields threw for 291 yards against the Steelers in his last start, but he had fewer than 210 passing yards in all six of his other starts. He’s likely to be without WR Allen Robinson, who’s dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bears will be at home for this one, and early forecasts are calling for winds of 15 to 25 mph. Winds in the upper end of that range could be problematic for deeper throws. Fields is going to be a good quarterback … eventually. This number just seems a little too optimistic for a rookie QB who’s struggled to find his footing.
Tyrod Taylor UNDER 238.5 passing yards
Wow, this is a really big number for a mediocre passer. It’s probably because the Titans are giving up 267.9 passing yards per game. Taylor has beaten this number in one of his two 2021 starts. But for a better indication of the true odds here, let’s look at Taylor’s three seasons as a starter with the Bills from 2015 to 2017. In 43 starts during his Buffalo period, he beat this number just 12 times. He was under that number in 72.1% of those starts. I feel confident in the under here.
Joe Flacco UNDER 227.5 passing yards
In his first start in nearly a full calendar year, Flacco will face a Dolphins defense that’s giving up 273.8 passing yards per game. As shaky as the Miami defense has been at times, this number just seems way too high for a rusty 36-year old backup. Flacco has hit this number in only four of his last 12 starts dating back to 2018.
Zack Moss UNDER 30.5 rushing yards
Moss has shared work with Devin Singletary since coming into the league last year, but Matt Breida got into the act last week, too, so this might be a three-headed backfield now. Moss has failed to hit this number in three of his last four games and in five of eight on the year. He has a tough Week 11 matchup against a Colts run defense that ranks second in DVOA behind only the Saints.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 74.5 rushing yards
The reason this number is so low for the NFL’s hottest running back is that the Bills are a tough matchup. Buffalo is allowing 83.9 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. But the Bills have faced a soft schedule for the most part. When they went up against Derrick Henry and the Titans in Week 6, Henry trampled them for 143 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last five games, Taylor has averaged 122 rushing yards. He’s beaten this number in five of his last seven games.
Zach Pascal UNDER 31.5 receiving yards
Pascal has a tough matchup against the Bills this weekend, and T.Y. Hilton’s presence reduces Pascal’s already minor role. In the three games Hilton has played this season, Pascal’s stat lines were 0-0-0, 5-43-0, and 2-9-0. Pascal is averaging only 10.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target.
Deebo Samuel OVER 74.5 receiving yards
Samuel had at least eight targets in every game this season until Week 10, when he only had five targets in the 49ers’ easy 31-10 victory over the Rams. He’s beaten this number in six of nine games this season and should be able to beat it again this weekend in Jacksonville.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 46.5 receiving yards
McCaffrey has hit this number in four of five games this season. Ah, but what about the new dynamic with Cam Newton at quarterback for the Panthers? Well, Newton and CMC have played two full seasons together. We’ll throw out the 2017 season because CMC hadn’t become a star yet. In his breakout 2018 season, McCaffrey had 47 or more receiving yards in 10 of his 14 games. That was all with Cam at quarterback. In a matchup against a bad Washington defense, McCaffrey should be able to hit this number with ease.
Evan Engram UNDER 35.5 receiving yards
Engram has failed to hit this number in four of seven games this season. Saquon Barkley is expected back after missing the Giants’ last four games with an ankle injury, and Sterling Shepard has a chance to return from a quad injury. Their returns would jeopardize Engram’s target share. And let’s face it: Engram hasn’t been good since 2018.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 79.5 receiving yards
Amari Cooper was placed on the COVID-19 list on Friday, so Lamb will have a little less target competition this Sunday in a favorable matchup against a leaky Chiefs defense. Lamb has beaten this number in four of his last five games and in six of nine games this season.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.