Top NFL Player Props: Week 13 (2021)
Why is December the best month to bet player props? Because some fantasy football managers drafted Robert Woods over Cooper Kupp or Brandon Aiyuk over Deebo Samuel, that’s why.
As with daily fantasy contests, player props give all of us, even the fantasy also-rans, a reason to stay dialed into the final full month of the NFL regular season.
Here are my favorite player props for Week 13.
- Last week’s bets: 4-3
- Season record: 34-24
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Jared Goff UNDER 235.5 passing yards
A Jared Goff under? Yes, please. Goff has hit this number in only one of his last six games. He’s averaging 228.0 passing yards per game in 2021, but that number falls to 215.8 if you take out a 338-yard garbage-time bonanza against the 49ers back in Week 1. The Lions will be without injured RB D’Andre Swift, an explosive playmaker capable of turning Goff dump-offs into big gains. The Lions host the Vikings this weekend, and when they played Minnesota in Week 5, Goff completed 21 of 35 passes for 201 yards.
Derek Carr OVER 267.5 passing yards
The knee injury putting Raiders TE Darren Waller’s status for Week 13 in jeopardy is probably a major factor in deflating Carr’s yardage prop. I think Carr can cruise past this number even without his stud tight end. The Vegas QB has topped this total in four of his last six games and in seven of 11 games for the season. He’ll be facing a pass-funnel Washington defense against whom opponents have thrown on 62% of their offensive snaps this season. The Football Team is yielding a 67.8% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
Russell Wilson OVER 229.5 passing yards
The Seattle passing game has been a mess ever since Wilson returned from a gruesome finger injury in Week 10. He’s failed to hit this number in two of the three games since he’s been back. Wilson is facing the 49ers this weekend, and when he went up against them in Week 4, he completed 16 of 23 passes for 149 yards. But hey, it’s Russell Wilson. Any time I can get a Wilson yardage prop this low, I’m jumping on it. But it’s not just about the name brand. The Seahawks have a completely dysfunctional running game. They’ve failed to top 90 rushing yards in any of their last five games. They’ll have no choice but to throw early and often against San Francisco.
Leonard Fournette OVER 63.5 rushing yards
Fournette has exceeded this number in five of the Buccaneers’ last six wins, and the Bucs are favored by 10 points against the Falcons. If game script cooperates, I like Fournette’s chances to flirt with a 100-yard rushing day. Fournette ran 17 times for 100 yards against a good Colts run defense last week.
Myles Gaskin UNDER 55.5 rushing yards
It was Week 7 that the Dolphins committed to Gaskin as their featured back. In the six games since, Gaskin has hit this number only twice despite the heavier usage. Gaskin has averaged 3.06 yards per carry over that span, largely because the Dolphins’ offensive line is terrible. Miami ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, adjusted line yards. The Dolphins face a Giants defense that hasn’t been very good against the run, allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry, but I trust the Miami offensive line to make this run defense look better than it really is.
Justin Jefferson OVER receiving 84.5 yards
Three weeks ago, Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak talked about getting Jefferson more involved. Since then, Jefferson has averaged 10.0 targets, 7.0 catches and 131.7 receiving yards per game. The Vikings won’t have Dalvin Cook for their Week 13 matchup with the Lions, so the Vikings may throw a bit more than usual. Jefferson should be able to feast on Detroit’s inexperienced cornerbacks.
Terry McLaurin UNDER 5.5 receptions
As of Thursday, the odds on the under were -120 rather than the usual -115, and with good reason. McLaurin has been held to five or fewer receptions in five of his last seven games. Washington faces Las Vegas this weekend, and Raiders opponents have directed 56.8% of their targets toward wide receivers, one of the lower percentages in the league. The return of WR Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas from injuries last week gives Washington QB Taylor Heinicke some other viable options in the passing game.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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