Top NFL Player Props: Week 15 (2021)
The COVID-19 madness of Week 15 has affected the player props market. The props menu is far more limited than it typically is. But the show must go on, and there are some wagers that really tickle my fancy this week.
Here are my favorite player props for Week 15.
- Last week's bets: 4-3
- Season record: 42-30
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Mike Glennon UNDER 198.5 passing yards
In his starts the last two weeks, Glennon has thrown for 187 and 191 yards. He's completed 53.3% of his throws this season and is averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Glennon will be facing a tough Dallas pass defense that's giving up the fourth-lowest completion percentage in the league at 60.1%. If Glennon struggles early in this one, it's possible he'll be benched for Jake Fromm.
Ben Roethlisberger OVER 260.5 passing yards
Roethlisberger has thrown 40 or more passes in 7 of his 12 starts this season. If Roethlisberger throws 40 passes against the Titans this weekend, he'd only need to average 6.53 yards per attempt to beat this number, and he's averaging 6.7 YPA on the year. There's good reason to think the Steelers will be pass-heavy this weekend: Their offensive line is one of the worst run-blocking units in the league, the Titans are tough against the run, and the Titans have had a pass-funnel defense, with opponents throwing against them 64% of the time. (The league average is 58%.) Roethlisberger has beaten this number in three of his last four games.
Taysom Hill OVER 42.5 rushing yards
In his two starts this season, Hill has run for 101 and 73 yards. His rushing totals from the four starts he made in 2020 while Drew Brees was hurt: 49, 44, 83 and 33. So as a starting quarterback the last two years, Hill has topped this number in 5 of 6 starts. The Buccaneers have a tough run defense, which is one reason this number is so low, but the Bills' Josh Allen ran for 109 yards against the Bucs last week.
Diontae Johnson OVER 79.5 receiving yards
As noted in the Ben Roethlisberger paragraph above, there are reasons to believe the Steelers will go pass-heavy against the Titans this weekend. Johnson has beaten this number in 7 of his 12 games this season and 4 of his last 5. The Titans are giving up 197.6 receiving yards per game to wide receivers - more than any other team in the league.
Marvin Jones OVER 45.5 yards
Could we get a post-Urban Meyer surge from the Jacksonville offense? OK, "surge" probably isn't the right word for an offense this toothless. But Jones and Meyer reportedly didn't see eye to eye, and I suspect Jones might be feeling extra frisky in the Jags' first game since the Meyer firing. The better reason to take the over here is that the Jaguars' opponents this week, the Texans, will be without their best cornerback, Terrance Mitchell, who just landed on the COVID-19 list.
Tre'Quan Smith UNDER 34.5 receiving yards
In the two games Taysom Hill has started at quarterback for the Saints, Smith has produced 15 and 33 receiving yards. Over those two games, Smith has averaged 9.6 yards per catch and just 4.8 yards per target. Smith has failed to reach this number in each of his last three games.
Chris Godwin OVER 7.5 receptions
I've been pounding overs on Chris Godwin and Hunter Renfrow receptions lately, and it's worked out well. There isn't a DraftKings reception total on the board for Renfrow at the moment, but I'll happily play another Godwin over. Godwin's weekly reception totals in the seven games that Antonio Brown has missed for the Buccaneers: 8, 8, 7, 6, 4, 15, 10. Check out those last two numbers - that's 25 catches in his last two games. Crazy. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been making a lot of short throws, and most of them have been going to Godwin and RB Leonard Fournette. With Fournette banged up and potentially playing limited snaps this week, Godwin should be plenty busy.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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