Top NFL Player Props: Week 16 (2021)
Last week’s top props finished 2-5 - an abysmal record befitting a cataclysmic week full of COVID-19 absences, bad games, and poor individual performances.
In my defense, I really should have finished 3-4. Chris Godwin was well on his way to hitting the over on 7.5 receptions before tearing his ACL. But then again, that’s why a lot of player prop numbers seem tantalizingly low - the chances of an in-game injury are baked into those numbers.
But no matter. Let’s roll up our sleeves, hitch up our britches and get back at it.
Here are my favorite player props for Week 16.
- Last week’s bets: 2-5
- Season record: 44-35
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Carson Wentz UNDER 209.5 passing yards
Let’s go back to Week 8 for a moment. The Colts lost to the Titans 34-31 in overtime that week. Wentz attempted 51 passes, threw for 231 yards, and heaved two costly interceptions. Jonathan Taylor carried 16 times for 70 yards and a touchdown. That game appears to have been a turning point for Colts head coach Frank Reich and his staff. In their six games since the Colts have thrown the ball on only 44% of their offensive snaps and have leaned heavily on Taylor’s running. Wentz has averaged 27.0 pass attempts and 179.8 passing yards over that span, exceeding 200 passing yards in just two of those six games. This week, Wentz is up against a Cardinals pass defense that ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and is giving up 210.0 passing yards per game.
Joe Burrow OVER 269.5 passing yards
Burrow is facing the Ravens for the second time this season. The first time, he threw for a season-high 416 yards in a 41-17 Bengals win. The Ravens’ secondary is in worse shape this time around, with Baltimore’s best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, out for the season with a pectoral injury. The Bengals will be at home for this one, and Burrow has beaten this number in five of seven home games this year.
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 230.5 passing yards
Heinicke has failed to hit this number in four straight starts. He’s up against the Cowboys this week, and when he faced Dallas in Week 14, Heinicke completed 11 of 25 passes for 122 yards before leaving with a knee injury in the fourth quarter. The Dallas pass defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA. Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, they’ve held opponents to an average of 227.1 passing yards per game.
Joe Mixon UNDER 67.5 rushing yards
In his last eight games, Mixon has hit this number only twice. He sprained his ankle last week, and now he’s going up against a Baltimore run defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. When Mixon faced the Ravens in Week 7, he carried 12 times for 59 yards. The Ravens’ cornerbacks have been decimated by injury, so it’s reasonable to expect the Bengals to attack through the air in this one.
Zach Ertz OVER 44.5 receiving yards
Last week, in the Cardinals’ first game since WR DeAndre Hopkins went on injured reserve, Ertz was targeted 11 times and had six catches for 74 yards in a loss to the Lions. Ertz should continue to be a key contributor in the Arizona passing game with Hopkins out, and this week he faces an Indianapolis defense that’s been bludgeoned by tight ends all season. The Colts have given up 954 receiving yards to tight ends, more than any other team in the league.
Cooper Kupp OVER 107.7 receiving yards
This is a big number, but Kupp is capable of crushing it. He’s averaging 116.1 receiving yards per game this season. Kupp has beaten this number in three straight games, in seven of his last nine, and nine of 14 games on the year. He’ll be facing a Vikings defense that has given up a league-high 2,670 receiving yards to wide receivers. Kupp gets a delicious individual matchup against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander, who grades out dead last among the 117 cornerbacks PFF has graded this season.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 62.5 receiving yards
Chase has hit this number just once in his last seven games. So why should we like the over here? As mentioned earlier, the Baltimore cornerbacks have been hit hard by injuries. Chase is likely to run a lot of his routes against Ravens CB Kevon Seymour, a journeyman who’ll be making his first start of the season. In a Week 7 meeting with the Ravens, Chase had eight catches for 201 yards, including an 82-yard touchdown.
Albert Okwuegbunam OVER 18.5 receiving yards
Never mind that Okwuegbunam is the Broncos’ No. 2 tight end. Albert O has had 21, 41, and 58 receiving yards in his last three games, with at least three receptions in each of those contests. With Teddy Bridgewater sidelined by a concussion, Drew Lock will be starting at quarterback for the Broncos this week, and Lock and Okwuegbunam played two seasons together at the University of Missouri. The Broncos will be facing the Raiders, who have allowed 880 receiving yards to tight ends this season, the fifth-highest total in the league.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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