Top NFL Player Props: Week 4 (2021)
Happy October, everyone. There are so many things I love about this time of year: fall color, cooler temperatures, Halloween decorations, abundant NFL player props.
Ah yes, player props. The Week 4 slate is a lot of fun, and there are some juicy player props I’m enthusiastic about, including a couple from that eagerly anticipated Sunday-night Buccaneers-Patriots game – and they don’t even involve Tom Brady. Let’s talk about a few of my favorite Week 4 player props.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
All odds come from DraftKings
Ryan Tannehill UNDER 220.5 passing yards
The Jets have one of the shakiest, most inexperienced cornerback groups in the NFL. It’s a group I’d normally want to attack with player props. But the Titans are likely to be without their two star receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, who both have hamstring injuries. If they’re out, Tennessee’s top three receivers will be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, and Josh Reynolds. The Titans are conservative offensively, to begin with, and they figure to be extra-conservative in this one. Put it this way: The over/under on Derrick Henry carries is 24.5, and it’s -125 on the over. I’d rather bet the under on 220.5 passing yards than on 19.5 completions because I could envision Tannehill throwing a bunch of short, high-percentage passes. I don’t think he’s going to go downfield very often.
Devin Singletary UNDER 60.5 rushing and receiving yards
Zack Moss played more snaps than Singletary last week, and Moss has scored three touchdowns in the Bills’ last two games. Moss was banged up going into the regular season, which was why he was inactive for Week 1. He’s the 1a in this backfield, Singletary is the 1b. Yes, it’s possible the Bills end up getting a big lead on the Texans and racking up carries in the second half. But the blowout narrative can be overstated, and I think it leads us astray on player props more often than not. Singletary is the No. 2 running back on a team that would rather pass than run. This is also a team with a quarterback who’s fond of running himself. It’s also worth noting that the under on Singletary’s combined yardage is juiced toward the over, so you’re getting -110 instead of the usual -115.
Darnell Mooney OVER 38.5 receiving yards
The Lions’ cornerback situation is a disaster, one that I’m going to be attacking with player props all year. It was a shaky group coming into the season, and Detroit’s top cornerback, Jeff Okudah, ruptured his Achilles. Another of the Lions’ corners, Ifeatu Melifonwu, is on IR. Ravens WR Marquise Brown might have had 200 receiving yards against the Lions last week if he hadn’t dropped three potential long gains. I like the over on Mooney at 38.5 yards a little more than the over on Allen Robinson at 50.5. yards. Mooney has a lower bar to clear, obviously, and the Lions figure to focus more of their attention on slowing down A-Rob. I don’t care who plays quarterback for the Bears. The over looks great to me. I will issue one caveat about this wager: It’s going to rain in Chicago on Sunday. Weather conditions could be a factor. I generally think weather effects are overstated, but extremely wet conditions can dial down passing numbers. I’ll probably wait to make this bet until Sunday morning when we have an exact forecast for Chicago weather. But some amount of rain in this game appears inevitable, based on the forecasts I’ve seen here in the Chicago area.
Tim Patrick OVER 3.5 receptions
Jerry Jeudy is still out with a high-ankle sprain, and K.J. Hamler is out for the year with a torn ACL. Patrick, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant figure to get the vast majority of Teddy Bridgewater’s targets. Patrick might get some face time with Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey, a quality cover man, but it’s not a matchup to run from, and Humphrey won’t be on Patrick all day. I would have set the total on Patrick receptions at 4.5
Jakobi Meyers OVER 5.5 receptions and 61.5 receiving yards.
I’m giving you two for the price of one here. This game is set up really well for heavy Meyers target volume. The Buccaneers have the most obvious pass-funnel defense in the NFL. They’re nearly impossible to run on, and their defense weakness is a shaky group of cornerbacks. The Bucs are especially vulnerable against slot receivers. Buccaneers CB Sean Murphy-Bunting was a below-average slot corner. He got hurt, and now the Bucs are using Ross Cockrell to cover slot receivers. Cooper Kupp lit up Cockrell last week: nine receptions, 96 yards, two touchdowns. Mac Jones is going to be throwing short passes all night, and one of his primary short-area pass catchers, James White, is now out for the year with a hip injury. Meyers should be extremely busy on Sunday night, and I think he could completely smash these totals.
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