Top NFL Player Props: Week 5 (2021)
Full disclosure: I'm a Green Bay Packers fan. My heart is green and gold, and my veins are filled not with blood but with melted cheese. So, sure, I have an inherent bias toward my favorite team. But I'm not starry-eyed about everything Packers-related. If they have issues, I'll be the first to complain about them. The Packers have major issues this week, and we can take advantage.
But first, let's cast an eye across the Atlantic Ocean to London, the site of this week's Jets-Falcons game.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
All odds come from DraftKings
Mike Davis OVER 44.5 rushing yards
With Calvin Ridley out this week, you'd imagine the Falcons will endeavor to get their running game going against the Jets in London. Look, I don't love the player. Davis is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry and is a replacement-level guy. But he's been on the field for 67% of Atlanta's offensive plays and is averaging 12.3 carries a game. The Jets' defense has been a run funnel. They've faced an average of 31.3 rushing attempts per game, and opponents are running against them on 45% of their offensive plays, which is 4% above league average. I just can't imagine the Falcons abandoning the run and exposing Matt Ryan to a Jets defense whose strength is its pass rush.
Cordarrelle Patterson over 41.5 receiving yards
Let's double up on the London game, shall we? With Patterson on the field for only about one-third of the Falcons' offensive plays this season, and with Patterson so clearly a regression candidate in a number of areas, any over bet involving him feels like a sucker play. But with Calvin Ridley out this week, Matt Ryan only has so many places he can go with the ball. His top receiver will be Olamide Zaccheaus, for heaven's sake. Titans RB Jeremy McNichols had eight catches for 74 yards against the Jets last week. James White had six catches for 45 yards against them in Week 2. Christian McCaffrey had nine catches for 89 yards against them in Week 1. I'll bet on Patterson to keep his mojo going for another week.
Dan Arnold UNDER 22.5 receiving yards
Normally I don't like attacking low totals, but this one is worth an exception. Yes, D.J. Chark is out for the year, and those vacated targets have to go somewhere. Jacksonville tight ends are averaging only 40.5 receiving yards per game, and four different Jaguars TEs had targets last week. The Jags are up against the Titans, who have allowed just five receptions and 35 yards to opposing tight ends this season on 16 targets. Arnold could conceivably beat this total with just one catch, but it's hard to imagine him getting more than a couple of targets. As a bonus, we get a slight discount on the juice here at -110 on the under. Sold.
Malcolm Brown UNDER 22.5 rushing yards
Here's another low total I don't mind attacking. The Dolphins are up against an impregnable Buccaneers run defense that's giving up just 47.5 rushing yards per game. Opponents rarely even bother trying to throw on the Bucs - they've passed against Tampa Bay on a league-high 73% of their offensive plays. Plus, the Dolphins have a hard-to-decipher committee at running back. Brown led Miami's RBs in snaps and carries last week, but it was the first time this season that had happened. (For sake of comparison, the total on Myles Gaskin's rushing yardage is 20.5.) Brown's eight carries last week were a season-high. Even if he gets eight rushing attempts against the Bucs, he's not a lock to hit the over against a Buccaneers’ defense giving up 2.7 yards per carry.
Kareem Hunt OVER 45.5 rushing yards
Hunt has beaten this number in three consecutive games, averaging 12.3 carries a game over that span. We know the Browns want to run. They're averaging 35 carries a game, and they're up against a run-funnel Chargers defense that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the extra juice (-120) without hesitation.
Taylor Heinicke OVER 239.5 passing yards
The Saints have a pass-funnel defense. Their run defense is terrific, so opponents rarely bother testing it and are throwing against New Orleans on 67% of their offensive plays. Heinicke has beaten this number in two of his three starts and has averaged 279.3 passing yards in those games. Not sure I'd bet Heinicke to clear this bar on the road, but I'm confident he can do it in a home game.
Ja'Marr Chase OVER 62.5 yards
Tee Higgins is expected back from a shoulder injury this week, so the Bengals' passing yardage will be parceled out to a number of different receivers, but there should be plenty of it to go around against a Green Bay defense missing stud edge rusher ZaDarius Smith and shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Alexander injury is a brutal one for the Packers, who have a weak group of cornerbacks otherwise and don't have anyone who can hang with a receiver as talented as Chase. The rookie has beaten this number in three of his first four games.
Tyler Boyd OVER 54.5 yards
Let's attack this injury-depleted Packers defense again. Boyd has topped this number in eight of QB Joe Burrow's 14 career starts, and he should do it again in a matchup with mediocre Packers slot corner Chandon Sullivan.
- Last week's bets: 3-3
- Season record: 3-3
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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