Top NFL Player Props: Week 7 (2021)
There are six teams on bye this week. Your fantasy team in your most important league has four starters missing and is projected to lose by 30 points. Hey, you might as well win at something this weekend. Here are some player props for Week 7 that look like good bets.
- Last week’s bets: 5-1
- Season record: 14-6
(Not to jinx it, but we’ve been running pure with these picks the last couple of weeks. … I definitely just jinxed it.)
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
All odds come from DraftKings
Joe Burrow OVER 257 passing yards
Burrow and the Bengals visit Baltimore for a big divisional showdown. The Ravens have a pass-funnel defense: Opponents are throwing on 66% of their offensive plays and running just 34% of the time. Burrow’s weekly passing yardage since Week 4: 348, 281, 271. The Ravens are giving up 277.3 passing yards per game and have yielded 400-yard passing games to Derek Carr and Carson Wentz this season. The Bengals have a terrific trio of receivers, and as 6.5-point underdogs there’s a good chance they find themselves in a pass-heavy game script.
Corey Davis UNDER 53.5 receiving yards
Davis has been held under this number in three of his last four games. He’s facing the Patriots this weekend, and when he went up against New England in Week 2, he was held to two catches for eight yards.
Robby Anderson OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Whoa … an over bet on Robby Anderson, whose hands appeared to be coated with WD-40 last week? Yes, even though Anderson has finished below this total in 4 of 6 games this season. He’s been targeted 29 times over the last three weeks, and if he were to see nine targets in this one, Anderson would only need to average 5.1 yards per target to make his quota. The Panthers are without Christian McCaffrey, their tight ends aren’t big factors in the passing game, and rookie Terrace Marshall isn’t getting much usage, so the Carolina passing game basically boils down to Sam Darnold throwing to D.J. Moore and Anderson. The Panthers are facing a Giants defense that PFF currently grades 26th in the league in pass coverage.
Kyle Pitts OVER 47.5 receiving yards
Pitts has cleared this number in three of his last four games, including a 119-yard breakout in Week 5 right before Atlanta’s bye. Falcons WR Calvin Ridley missed that game, which no doubt factored into Pitts’ enhanced usage. But Pitts is such a tough matchup for defenses that any total under 50 yards seems like a bargain.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 247.5 passing yards
Hurts looks lost in the passing game, quite frankly. He threw for 198 yards against the Panthers in Week 5, then 115 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 6. Hurts faces a Las Vegas defense that’s allowing 222.7 passing yards per game. The Raiders will play their cover-3 defense and refuse to be burned deep, forcing Hurts to work his way down the field by completing one short pass after another. It doesn’t seem like a recipe for a big yardage day.
Chris Godwin OVER 6.5 receptions
The odds on this bet are +110, so it’s going to be an uphill climb, but I think Godwin can get there. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have been ruled out for the Buccaneers, so Godwin and Mike Evans figure to draw a high percentage of Tom Brady’s targets. The Bucs are up against a Bears defense that’s had a hard time handling slot receivers. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Boyd each had seven catches against the Bears, and Hunter Renfrow and Amon-Ra St. Brown each had six. Godwin is a good bet to see double-digit targets against Chicago, and Bears slot corner Xavier Howard is allowing completions on 75% of the throws into his coverage.
Ross Dwelley OVER 22.5 receiving yards
With George Kittle still out, Dwelley gets another start at tight end for the 49ers, who figure to be pass-heavier with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback than they were with Trey Lance. The Niners face a Colts defense that’s been smacked around by tight ends lately. Mike Gesicki had five catches for 57 yards and a TD against Indy in Week 4, Mark Andrews had 11 catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5, and even the Texans duo of Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins combined for six catches and 52 yards against the Colts in Week 6.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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