Top NFL Player Props: Wild-Card Weekend (2022)
I can be very resistant to change, so when I learned that the NFL was expanding its playoffs, I immediately disliked the idea. It seemed as if the league was just chasing the almighty dollar, and that the playoff field would be diluted by adding two undeserving teams.
Mea culpa: I was wrong. The idea of a mega wild-card round was spectacular, and I couldn’t be more excited about this weekend.
Six playoff games? Three playoff games on Sunday? A Monday-night playoff game? Yes, yes, yes. To quote the great American philosopher Kent Dorfman: “Oh, boy, is this great!â€
Not only do we get extra playoff games, but we get extra wagering opportunities. Here are my favorite player props for the wild-card round of the playoffs.
- Last week’s bets: 5-2
- Season record: 58-41
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 229.5 passing yards
Roethlisberger has failed to hit this number in three of his last four games. His yardage totals over that span: 148, 159, 123 and 244. That 159-yard performance in Week 16 came against the Steelers’ opponent this week, the Chiefs. If you’re worried about Roethlisberger beating this number with a lot of garbage-time yardage in a game where Pittsburgh is a double-digit underdog, consider that the Chiefs beat the Steelers 36-10 three weeks ago, and Big Ben still didn’t come close to 200 yards. The Steelers’ passing game has fallen apart as Roethlisberger huffs and puffs his way to the finish line of a long and illustrious career. Since Week 15, he’s averaged 168.5 passing yards per game and just 4.5 yards per pass attempt.
Mac Jones UNDER 205.5 passing yards
The Patriots have been run-heavy all season, and there’s little chance that Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to use an aggressive, aerial-based gameplan on a frigid night against the best pass defense in the league. New England has passed on 53% of its offensive snaps this season, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. Since the start of November, the Patriots have been even more run-heavy, throwing on only 47% of their offensive snaps. Jones will be facing a Bills pass defense that’s been airtight even without ace cover man Tre’Davious White, who tore his ACL on Thanksgiving night. Buffalo ranks first in opponent passer rating and in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Buffalo has allowed a 56.0% completion percentage and has given up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, both league lows. Jones completed 14 of 32 passes for 142 yards against the Bills when he last faced them in Week 16. He also faced them in Week 13, completing two of three passes for 19 yards in a game affected by high winds. The weather won’t be that extreme Saturday night in Buffalo, but the air temperature is expected to be below 10 degrees – hardly ideal passing weather.
Joe Burrow OVER 261.5 passing yards
Bet the hot hand. Burrow blistered the Ravens for 525 passing yards in Week 16, then dropped 446 yards on the Chiefs in Week 17 before being rested in Cincinnati’s meaningless regular-season finale. The Bengals host the Raiders on Saturday afternoon. When they played the Raiders in Week 11, Burrow threw for a season-low 148 yards in a 32-13 Cincinnati victory. The Bengals ran the ball 38 times that day and attempted 29 passes. Perhaps Burrow’s modest stats from that game are keeping this yardage total in check because Burrow has topped this number in four of his last five games and in nine of his last 13. Play the over here and leverage the pass-catching talents of Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Devin Singletary OVER 64.5 rushing yards
The Bills used a backfield by committee for much of the season, but Singletary has become their workhorse down the stretch. He’s played 68% or more of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in each of the last five games, with his snap share at or above 80% in three of those games. Singletary has cleared this number in three of his last four outings, averaging 19 carries and 80.8 rushing yards a game over that stretch. He’ll face a Patriots defense that has been easier to run against than to throw against. New England has allowed the 11th most rushing yards, giving up 123.7 per game. As noted in the Mac Jones comment above, temperatures will be in the single digits for the Patriots-Bills game. That’s running weather.
Leonard Fournette UNDER 61.5 rushing yards
As good as Fournette has been this season, he’s failed to hit this number in five of his last seven games and in eight of his 14 games this season. He’ll be facing a solid Eagles run defense that has given up the ninth fewest rushing yards. Fournette is also coming off a hamstring injury, so there’s at least some degree of risk of aggravation. I do think Fournette will get ample usage on Sunday, but it might be more as a receiver than as a runner. Fournette averaged 4.9 catches a game this season, and the Eagles are giving up 6.7 catches per game to RBs, second-most in the league.
Deebo Samuel OVER 28.5 rushing yards
Deebo was being used as a conventional receiver in September and October, but the 49ers changed his role midway through the regular season and turned Deebo into a multifaceted monster. In his first eight games, Deebo had only six carries. In his last eight games, he’s had 53 carries, which works out to 6.6 per game. During that late-season stretch, Deebo has topped this number seven of eight times. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry for the season. It will be a shock if the 49ers don’t mix in around a half-dozen Deebo rushing attempts when they visit the Cowboys on Sunday
Rob Gronkowski OVER 55.5 receiving yards
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15. WR Antonio Brown left the team midgame in Week 17 and has since been released. Speedy WR Cyril Grayson was briefly helping to fill the void, but he injured his hamstring last weekend and is unlikely to suit up when the Bucs host the Eagles on Sunday. With his pass-catching options much more limited, Tom Brady has leaned heavily on his trusty longtime tight end. Gronk has seen 10 targets in each of his last two games. He had seven catches for 115 yards vs. the Jets in Week 17, then seven catches for 137 yards against the Panthers. Gronkowski will be facing an Eagles defense that has given up 1,035 receiving yards to tight ends this season, the sixth-highest total in the league.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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