Top NFL Week 2 Preseason Betting Picks: Cardinals vs. Chiefs (8/20)
In the regular season, a Cardinals vs. Chiefs primetime matchup would be absolute must-watch TV. Two of the most exciting young quarterbacks and offenses in the NFL squaring off in what would almost promise to be a fireworks show on offense.
Unfortunately, this isnât the regular season. Itâs just the preseason, after all. But that doesnât mean we canât find some excitement when Arizona and Kansas City square off in an important regular-season tune-up. Thereâs plenty of value left in one key spot, and itâs my best bet of the night.
Before we begin, remember how volatile betting the preseason can be. Playing time is never certain, so remember to research and bet within your means.
Check out our consensus odds for this weekâs preseason games >>
Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3; O/U 41.5)
This total has taken some injections since opening at 37.5. Itâs risen all the way up to 41.5 at some books, while it sits at 41 at others. If you can find 41.5 â this is where it currently sits on DraftKings â I obviously prefer that to 41. But I still like it at the lower number and like it down to 40.5, in fact.
This total is obviously heavily inflated, considering itâs jumped four whole points, and itâs clear why. Andy Reid told the media he plans on playing his starters for the entire first half on Friday night, causing an influx of bettors to blindly hammer the over, thinking theyâre getting two full quarters of Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Not so fast, however.
Many Chiefs beat writers are a bit skeptical of this claim, and with valid reason. Take a look at what Cody Main of Establish The Run dug up on Reidâs recent preseason playing time claims:
If this trend is any indicator, and it looks to be a good one, weâll be lucky if we get a quarter from the Chiefs starters. And whatâs more: what do the Chiefs really need to prove? Theyâve been the best team in the NFL over the last two years, and theyâve got two conference titles and a Super Bowl to show for it. Theyâre the only team I can remember in recent memory who can legitimately flip a switch on offense when they need to. So basically, even if the starters do play, I donât expect anything outside the first few pages of the playbook: the basic stuff. They wonât be explosive because they donât need to be.
As for Arizona, Kyler Murray didnât play last week, and Kliff Kingsbury has yet to announce any plans for his quarterback and the rest of the starters. But it feels like Murray and company will get at least a quarter and maybe a series into the second frame. Itâs rare to sit a quarterback and then ask him to play the entire first half of a meaningless game. If game one didnât matter, game two isnât all of a sudden taking on increased importance for a coaching staff.
So if we get two-and-a-half, maybe even three quarters, of the Cardinalsâ backup offense on Friday, we should be in good shape to cash this under. They settled for four field goals against the Cowboys last week, so Iâm not exactly fearful that Kingsbury is going to push the limit and go for it on a bunch of fourth downs. Clearly, getting out of dodge healthy is one of his top priorities.
All in all, this total climbed way too high because of blind bets based on one comment from Andy Reid. Itâs too inflated, so Iâll gladly take the under here.
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether youâre new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section â including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â or head to more advanced sports betting strategy â like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â to learn more.
Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.