Top NHL Betting Odds & Pick For Wednesday, May 11th (2022)
We’ve got our first elimination of the 2022 NHL Playoffs as the top-seeded Colorado Avalanche swept the Nashville Predators, a team down to their third-string goaltender, in relatively tidy fashion. Colorado looked every bit like the powerhouse they were hyped up to be coming into this season, and seem poised for the Stanley Cup run that GM Joe Sakic built them to take on. Watch out, NHL.
Will there be another elimination tonight? Washington, Florida, Dallas, and Calgary will all live to fight another day regardless of tonight’s outcome; those series are tied at two games apiece. But the Penguins could end the Rangers season on their home ice in a series that has been possibly even more lopsided than the Avalanche’s destruction of the Predators.
With just a three-game slate and two extremely heavy favorites on the board tonight, pickings are slim, but here is my favorite bet on the night.
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Calgary Flames / Dallas Stars Under 5.5 (-125; Caesars)
Betting the under in hockey is nerve-wracking. Betting the under in the playoffs is even more nerve-wracking. Especially when you consider over 90% of goals this playoff with a pulled goaltender have actually gone into the empty net against the team with the extra skater. But this series has been about the goaltenders, and I think we’re in for another gem of a performance on Wednesday.
So far, only one game has gone over 5.5 goals in this series – Game 3 in Dallas. The first two games of this series saw two shutouts – one for each club – and three combined goals. In total, there have been just 14 goals scored in the four games, or 3.5 per game, and I don’t anticipate any sort of an outburst for two reasons.
First, of course, is the goaltending. When ranking the playoff netminders in goals saved above expectation, widely viewed as the best statistic at interpreting how well a goalie is actually playing, both Jake Oettinger and Jacob Markstrom land in the top three. Oettinger is number one, saving 6.4 goals above expectation with a 1.53 goals against average and an incredible .980 save percentage on unblocked shots. His save percentage on all shots in all situations is a sparkling .960, having stopped 143 of 149 shots in just four games.
On the other end of the ice is Jacob Markstrom, a 2022 Vezina finalist and the third-best playoff goalie in terms of goals saved above expectation. His goals against average is the best in the playoffs outside Erik Kallgren, who has played just one period in relief of Jack Campbell, at 1.27. Markstrom will also get the luxury of playing at home, where he sported a 2.17 goals against average on the year.
Speaking of playing at home, that brings me to the second pillar which is the venue. Game 5 is in Calgary, and the Flames are going to be able to dictate the flow of this game with the ability to control the last change. Calgary is not a special teams type of team; they like to beat you up five-on-five, so special teams will be less of a factor. And of course, when there are fewer power plays, there are fewer golden opportunities to score goals. Even if we do see a few penalties, these teams are each 2/17 on the man advantage in this series, good for third-to-last among the 16 participants.
This under could get steamed down as sharp money comes in, and I wouldn’t play it much lower than the posted number. The public loves to bet overs, so keep an eye on this line as we get closer to puck drop, as it could add some value in our favor.
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