Top NHL Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, May 10 (2022)
The 2022 NHL playoffs have been nothing short of… weird. Outside of Nashville vs. Colorado, every other series has been incredibly close in terms of games won. But the games themselves have been anything but competitive, and it’s causing odds to jump all over the place.
Coming into tonight, fewer than 15% of playoff games have been decided by one goal. Sure, it’s still round one and the herd has yet to be thinned, but multiple games per night seem to be decided after two, sometimes even after one period.
Tonight should be interesting though, as four series will shift back to their original sites and essentially start over from scratch. All four series are tied 2-2; they’re all now basically best-of-three. Who will take the all-important 3-2 lead? Here’s who I like to get it done on Tuesday.
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Scores a Goal >>
Minnesota Wild ML (-120; FoxBet)
This series may be tied 2-2, but quite honestly it shouldn’t be. The Wild have not only been the better team between the two, but they’ve also only been outplayed by Pittsburgh and Colorado among all playoff teams. And I think the dam is finally going to break in their favor tonight.
The Wild have an expected goals percentage (xGF%) of 59.03% through four games, and as mentioned earlier, only the Penguins and Avalanche have better numbers. For context, Minnesota’s xGF% in the regular season was nearly 6% lower according to NaturalStatTrick, so they’re exponentially outperforming their regular season play. A regular season that saw them total 113 points, second-most in the West, by the way.
Minnesota is just running into poor luck, and they haven’t been able to finish a slew of their golden opportunities. They own 59.32% of the high-danger chances in the series, also third-best in the NHL. But, they’ve only scored 42.86% of those chances, which is ironically third-worst among playoff teams. With the series shifting back to the State of Hockey, I expect a little more puck luck for Kirill Kaprizov and company.
Another item that can’t be overlooked in this series is the goaltending for St. Louis. Ville Husso took the net in the opening game despite Stanley Cup champion Jordan Binnington’s past history of success in the postseason. Husso sparkled in Game 1, shutting Minnesota out, but Games 2 and 3 were games to forget for Husso. The Blues were outscored 11-3, and it forced Craig Berube to go back to Binnington in Game 4. He was stellar, holding the Wild to just two goals in a 5-2 win, but now what does Berube do? Does he go back to Husso and risk another dud on the road? Or does he stick with Binnington and hope he gets a performance similar to what big number 50 gave him in Game 4?
My guess is we’ll see Binnington, and that’s great for this bet because he wasn’t very good this year with a .901 save percentage. I expect some of the “I’m back†adrenaline he got in front of his home crowd in Game 4 to wear off, so play Minnesota down to -130.
Tampa Bay Lightning ML (+110; Caesars)
Uh-oh, Toronto. Is it really happening again? Are the Maple Leafs really going to get knocked out in the first round… again? At first glance, you may think I’m being a bit premature; the series is tied 2-2 after all and it’s heading back north of the border to Toronto. Advantage Leafs, right?
Not so fast. They’re not just battling any team in the opening round; they’re playing against the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. And the Lightning have the all-important momentum thanks to a blowout 7-3 victory in Game 4. But beyond the scoreboard, I think we have to read between the lines to see why Tampa Bay’s confidence should be extremely high heading into Game 5.
Here are Tampa’s goal scorers from Game 4: Stamkos, Bellemare, Maroon, Perry, Palat, and Colton twice. Not Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Cirelli, and Killorn. Stamkos, Palat, Colton, and the entire fourth line. The Lightning have found a way to combat the Leafs taking away their top six, and if they’re going to roll four lines – watch out. They could wrap this thing up in six games.
Speaking of that, I believe the pressure is squarely on Toronto despite the series being tied and headed back home. Why? Because Toronto doesn’t want to go back to Tampa Bay down 3-2. It’s going to cause them to play much too tight, and that’s not going to work against a Lightning team that is stacked with experience in the playoffs.
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