Top NHL Betting Odds & Picks For Tuesday, May 3rd (2022)
It’s Stanley Cup Playoff time, the greatest time of the year for hockey fans. But with all the excitement comes a ton of temptation to bet. Just remember, you don’t have to bet on every game. Do your research, follow along, spot trends, and bet the spots you feel most confident in. Again – you don’t have to bet every game!
The playoffs actually kicked off yesterday with two games out east – Boston vs. Carolina and Tampa Bay vs. Toronto – and two more out west – St. Louis vs. Minnesota and Los Angeles vs. Edmonton. The other eight NHL qualifiers will get their first taste of playoff action tonight, and if you’ve followed this series dating back to last year, you know how weary I am of betting not only Game 1s, but Game 1s in the opening round.
So if we’re not going to bet on Game 1s, what are we betting on tonight? Series futures, of course. Here are my series picks for each of the four kicking off on the ice tonight.
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New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Rangers are the higher seed between themselves and the division-rival Penguins, but the market still doesn’t trust them after far exceeding expectations this year on the coat tail of goaltender Igor Shesterkin.
The market is also expecting the public, despite the Rangers being a really popular team, to side with the big names on Pittsburgh – namely Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But this being an opening round series, let’s not make this more complicated than it has to be. There are two key factors that have me backing New York.
First and most importantly – goaltending. Igor Shesterkin was by far and away the best goaltender in the NHL this season. He led the league in goals saved above expectation with 34.1, nearly six full goals ahead of the next best, and he’ll probably get some Hart Trophy votes. Tristan Jarry had a nice season for the Penguins, but the second half of the year was a struggle, and he saved just 12.1 goals above expectation on the year. I’m betting on the Rangers’ netminder to come up with more big saves.
And secondly, in a series that’s about as close to a coin flip as you’ll find in the first round, I’ll back the team who not only gets home ice advantage first, but will get it in a potential Game 7. Starting series strong as just as critical as finishing them strong, and the Rangers were 27-10-4 at The Garden on the year. Play New York down to -115.
New York Rangers To Win Series (-105; DraftKings)
Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals
For those unfamiliar with series spreads, it’s just like a spread in any game. We’re betting on the Panthers to win 1.5 more games in this series than the Capitals. In simpler terms, they need to sweep Washington, beat them 4-1, or beat them 4-2. And they’re more than capable of doing so.
The Capitals limped to the finish line this season, and that’s one thing if you’re a top seed going up against a Wild Card team where you can rely purely on skill to will you through the opening round. But this situation is just the opposite; the Capitals and the Wild Card team, and the Panthers are the top seed.
Washington finished the year 1-3-2 and scored just 12 goals in that six game span, and that’s simply not going to work against Florida. The Panthers finished the year as the top scoring team in the league, and they could very well be welcoming Aaron Ekblad back to team back up with Mackenzie Weegar on Florida’s top pair.
What’s more: Alexander Ovechkin isn’t 100% healthy, and I know nobody is 100% healthy this time of year, but Ovechkin didn’t play down the stretch, so this is more than a minor stinger. This is something he’s going to be dealing with as long as Washington survives, which I don’t anticipate will be long. Play the Cats down to -145.
Florida Panthers -1.5 Games (-135; FanDuel)
Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators
It only took three bets, but we finally ran into our first plus-money wager. This is the same bet as the above we took on Florida, but Colorado needs to beat Nashville by sweep or in five games.
The Avalanche have been the Stanley Cup betting favorites since day one. Literally. They opened the year as favorites over the Lightning even after Tampa Bay hoisted their second-straight Cup, and they never fell out of the favorite spot all season long. And for good reason, they’ve got two of the best players in the world, their goaltender is playing like a man possessed, and perhaps most importantly – Nashville will be without their starting goaltender.
Juuse Saros is out for the first two games of the season in Colorado, and of course that would be a big deal in any series, but particularly so against the top-seeded Avalanche. Just how big is the drop-off between Saros and his understudy David Rittich? Saros saved 20.7 goals above expected this season, good for sixth-best among all NHL goaltenders. Rittch, a career journeyman who had a brief stint of success in Calgary, allowed 7.5 goals above expectation. That’s a difference of 28.2 expected goals and 88 spots on the goaltender ranking list.
Good luck shutting down a Colorado team who scores nearly five goals per game. Play the Avs down to +105.
Colorado Avalanche -2.5 Games (+114; FanDuel)
Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars
Four series handicaps, and three favorites. It’s very unlike me, but some of these prices are too good to pass up, and we’re in an interesting time in the NHL. The pandemic froze the salary cap, so a lot of teams are up against the limit and are “going for itâ€. All in, nothing to lose, Cup or bust. Calgary is one of those teams.
As I mentioned with the Capitals, the Stars just did not look good down the stretch and that’s going to carry over against a high-powered Flames team. Dallas finished the year on a 3-3-1, but more importantly, they just couldn’t notch a big win when they needed it to clinch a playoff spot or knock the Golden Knights out of contention. The playoffs are all about winning key games and scoring key goals, and I just don’t have the faith in the Stars to get it done.
Dallas is also very one-dimensional up front; they rely very heavily on their top line driven by Jason Robertson. You can’t have just one line and expect to succeed in the playoffs, especially when going up against a goaltender like Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom was 12th in the NHL in goals saved above expected.
Calgary is far too powerful for Dallas to contend with, so play the Flames down to -135.
Calgary Flames -1.5 Games (-125; DraftKings)
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