Top NHL Betting Pick for Monday, March 29 (2021)
Last week saw me run colder than a Deadliest Catch deckhand. Blown leads, overtime losses, and a few games that just didn’t work out. But hey, it can’t always be sunshine and rainbows in this racket. Today begins a new week, starting with a solid yet unspectacular, 7-game slate. Below we’ll analyze a North Division matchup that we hope brings us value and victory.
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*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Winnipeg Jets (+102) vs. Calgary Flames (-120)
These two teams are built similarly. Both possess premiere top-six forward groups and stellar goaltenders, with average defensive corps.
Analytically, Calgary grades out better in Corsi, xGF%, and xGA/60. Typically, my analysis would consider this. However, Winnipeg is a team that significantly overperforms its metrics due to superior offensive and goaltending talent.
The Flames have been an enigma this season. Flashing promise at times, only to disappear for long stretches soon thereafter. From the outside, morale seems to be low. If anyone saw the recent in-game interview with star center Sean Monahan, you would notice his general lack of enthusiasm. Droning on with the personality of a soap dispenser.
This will be their third matchup in four days, with both teams earning a victory. Below we’ll evaluate the metrics from the most recent contest.
- CF%: 46.15 (WPG) 53.85% (CAL)
- HDCF: 9 (WPG) 6 (CAL)
- xGF: 1.85 (WPG) 1.04 (CAL)
- xGF%: 64 (WPG) 36 (CAL)
Result: 4-2 Calgary
Apart from possession, Winnipeg held the advantage in high danger scoring chances and expected goal metrics. While they may have deserved better, Calgary played a little more inspired than usual after head coach Darryl Sutter publicly shamed his teams’ effort after the previous game. I imagine threatening that they will have to dig five miles of fence posts by hand on his Alberta ranch if they did not give it their all.
Despite coming off a needed win and the analytical advantage, this Flames team hasn’t shown the ability to be consistent all year. Other than a home-ice advantage, they do not deserve to be favored, nor are they the better team. I would rather lay bricks than the juice, and for that reason, I will be backing their opponent.
Pick: Winnipeg Jets (+102)
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.