Top NHL Betting Pick for Saturday, May 29 (2021)
Saturdayâs short NHL playoff slate features the potential conclusion of a Round 1 series and the beginning of what should be a highly-contested second round series.
Iâll admit, itâs tough to back a side in either of these games. The Toronto Maple Leafs are -190 road favorites against the desperate Montreal Canadiens (+170), while the Boston Bruins are -185 home faves over the scrappy New York Islanders (+165). While both underdogs present value, I just canât get myself to back either of them.
So, for todayâs best bet, Iâm heading to the totals market:
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Under 5.5 (-121) in Montreal-Toronto
The Montreal-Toronto series has been one of the lower-scoring first round matchups. The under is 3-2 in the series, and there have been three games with four total goals or fewer.
As I wrote in my Thursday piece, the Canadiens struggled to convert on their high-danger opportunities early on in the series. That changed in Game 5, as the Habs lit the lamp four times to send the series back home. Montreal relied on some ugly goals to jump out to a 3-0 lead that they almost surrendered in Game 5. Puck luck finally went Montrealâs way in Game 5, but I have a hard time seeing that continue against a Toronto team thatâs controlled play throughout the series with an expected goals for percentage of 58.82. Canadiens netminder Carey Price has allowed some questionable goals throughout the series, but I expect him to be locked in at home with his teamâs season on the line.
Iâm also relying on a little history with this pick, as goal averages tend to decrease in Game 6 and Game 7 of a playoff series. Teams tighten up and play more risk-averse hockey in the later stages of the series. Of course, youâre also talking to the guy who had the under in Game 7 of the Vegas-Minnesota series, and that game saw six goals from the Golden Knights alone⦠Thatâs why they call it gambling!
Thoughts on Bruins-Islanders
The Islanders deserve all the credit in the world for finding a way to close out their first round series against Pittsburgh. However, there were some really ugly stretches in that series where New York clearly looked inferior to the Penguins. The goaltending matchup made the difference, as New Yorkâs Ilya Sorokin was far superior to Pittsburghâs Tristan Jarry between the pipes.
Thatâs sort of how the Islanders are built to win under coach Barry Trotz. Keep games tight, be opportunistic in the offensive end and let goaltending be the difference. That strategy might not work as well against a loaded Bruins lineup that features The Perfection Line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak, plus trade acquisition Taylor Hall. New York also will face a much stiffer test in goal against Tukka Rask.
While I believe Boston is the superior team, laying -185 in Game 1 is a price too steep for me. If you want to get a bet in on the Bruins without drinking so much juice, Iâd recommend taking Boston to win in regulation, which is just -109.
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