Top NHL Betting Pick For Tuesday, December 21st (2021)
Well, to say things are trending in the wrong direction in the NHL would be putting it lightly. The league currently has over 100 players and staff in COVID protocol, seven teams’ seasons are paused through the holiday break due to outbreaks, a few Canadian teams have been limited to 50% capacity, or in Montreal’s case, no fans at all, and cross-border games have been postponed. On top of it all, the All-Star game is in question, the next few weeks of the season are in question, and players heading to the Olympics is looking more and more impossible by the minute and, according to some reports, will be banned.
Tuesday night was supposed to be another midweek slate full of NHL games – 10 to be exact. But COVID outbreaks have canceled eight of them, leaving just two available for us to bet with very little value to be found. With so few options, here is my favorite wager tonight.
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>
Vegas Golden Knights ML (-125)
It’s not often I’ll take any team -125 playing against the two-time Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning, but the Knights are red-hot right now and after being possibly the most injured team in the league for the first few weeks – are one of the healthier teams and (fingers crossed) have zero players or coaches currently in COVID protocol.
Just because I’m aware that the tendency here is to see “fade the Lightning†and keep scrolling, I’ll address Tampa first. The Lightning are the champions until someone de-thrones them, but they’ve hit a bit of a snag offensively lately. In their last 10 periods, they’ve scored just five goals, and despite being 2-1-0 in those three games, they’ve been outscored 7-5 and have been out-hit in all three games. To add insult to injury, those three games were against the Kings and twice against the Senators, and two of the three came at home. Good luck in Vegas!
The Knights are on an absolute tear, winners of five straight and eight of nine. During their streak, they’ve not had a game cancelled, so they’ve been able to maintain their strong play. Tampa Bay’s Saturday night clash with Colorado was postponed, so it’s going to take them a bit to get their skating legs after having five nights off. Vegas’ stretch of strong play has come against many top teams, too – they’re not just beating up on the bottom-feeders. They took down the Rangers, Bruins, Wild, Stars, and Flames, and now they’ll return to the desert for a little home cooking.
December has been kind to Vegas in terms of underlying metrics, too, and not so kind to Tampa Bay. The Knights are third in Corsi For (CF%), fourth in shots, third in expected goals (xGF%), and fifth in scoring chances. The Lightning rank 23rd, 27th, 16th, and 18th in those categories, respectively.
Vegas has been on a roll, and like I mentioned above, Tampa is going to need a few shifts to get into the swing of things. With the rate the Knights have been putting the puck in the net, Tampa Bay may not have the luxury of those few shifts – Vegas is scoring 4.5 goals per game in their last 10, and now their rabid fan base will welcome them back home. Play the Golden Knights down to -130.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.