Top NHL Betting Picks for Monday, April 19 (2021)
The new week begins with a solid yet unspectacular 8-game slate. The most intriguing matchup by far will take place in the Central Division between the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning. Below we’ll analyze both teams to determine our best bets for the night.
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YTD: 156-137-1 (+35.41u)
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Carolina Hurricanes (+105) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-121)
Carolina enters tonight first in the Central Division with one game in hand on Tampa Bay. However, a loss would allow the Lightning to move into a tie for first place in the division, making this a true four-point contest.
The ‘Canes inexplicably dropped two games at home to the lowly Detroit Red Wings last week before regrouping and winning two straight against the red-hot Nashville Predators. This team has depth upfront and owns one of the best defensive corps in the league. Coming into the season, question marks were surrounding their goaltending, but the trio of Petr Mrazek, Alex Nedelijovic, and James Reimer have performed admirably to date.
Tampa Bay has performed as expected this season but recently has looked like mere mortals. Sitting 5-5 in their last ten games, the team is mired in a mini-slump as star players Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov nurse injuries.
The good news is the roster is exceptionally deep, and they still have Victor Hedman on defense and Andrei Vasilevskiy in net – two of the best at their respective positions. Additionally, Kucherov is back skating and should return to the lineup soon, so hope is on the horizon.
Let’s analyze their metrics 5v5 this season:
Number’s courtesy of Evolving-Hockey
- CF%: 55.44 (CAR) 53.23 (TB)
- xGF%: 54.46 (CAR) 52.57 (TB)
- xGA/60: 2.32 (CAR) 2.1 (TB)
- xGF/60: 2.77 (CAR) 2.33 (TB)
Statistically, these teams are as close as it gets. To find an edge, I went back and looked at the metrics from April 9th until today, as that is the last time Stamkos was in the lineup for Tampa.
Metrics 5v5, April 9-April 19:
- CF%: 58.38 (CAR) 48.69 (TB)
- xGF%: 57.47 (CAR) 38.55 (TB)
- GA/60: 1.95 (CAR) 3.69 (TB)
- xGF/60: 3.84 (CAR) 1.41 (TB)
As we can see, the Hurricanes are significantly better in every category in the past ten days which is important to note as Stamkos is out until May and Kucherov is still not in the lineup.
There is no doubt that when both teams are healthy, the Lightning is a slightly better team. However, sans two of their best offensive players, they will struggle to score against the defensively responsible Hurricanes.
It will be a close one, but I anticipate the Caniacs coming out on top.
Picks: Carolina Hurricanes (+105) or better, Under 5.5 (-110)
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.