Top NHL Betting Picks for Monday, January 18 (2021)
The first week of NHL action treated us well. Between our writeup and Twitter picks, we went 9-2 (+8.15 units). Monday’s action starts early, with the first game beginning at noon. Let’s analyze today’s best bets below.
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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Columbus Blue Jackets (-165) at Detroit Red Wings (+140)
Columbus comes into today’s matinee 0-2 after dropping both games to the Nashville Predators in their season series opener. Typically, a stout defensive team, the Blue Jackets allowed five goals off odd-man rushes – an anomaly and quite contrary to this team’s identity.
Both goaltenders, Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins looked shaky while turning in less than inspiring performances. Granted, the play in front of them didn’t provide the best support.
However, it wasn’t all bad news. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, in Saturday’s game, the Jackets had a 10-5 edge in high-danger scoring chances. With some better execution and puck luck, the outcome may have resulted in victory.
Detroit is fresh off a big win over a strong Carolina Hurricanes team. This team is very much in rebuilding mode but does possess a strong first line consisting of Dylan Larkin-Anthony Mantha-Tyler Bertuzzi.
Despite the victory, the underlying statistics don’t provide much confidence in backing this team. While a small sample size, Detroit registered a mere 1.44 xGF/60 and a dreadful 3.18 xGA/60. Not exactly a recipe for success.
I’m looking for Columbus to breakthrough in this game and take advantage of a rebuilding Wings team.
Pick: Columbus in regulation -105
San Jose Sharks (+155) St. Louis Blues (-180)
The Sharks are a team in relative purgatory. They have a decent core group between Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, and Brent Burns, but otherwise, they’re relatively unimpressive.
In the past two seasons, Martin Jones and Aaron Dell’s goaltending tandem has registered a league worse even-strength save percentage. While Dell has departed, he was replaced by an underwhelming Devan Dubnyk, not exactly an upgrade.
To make matters worse, thus far this season, they’ve registered a brutal 3.45 xGA/60. That came against the lowly Coyotes – who aren’t exactly the picture of offense.
The Blues were just trounced by the Colorado Avalanche, losing 8-0, while turning in a pathetic performance. Starting goalie, Jordan Binnington, was yanked after letting in 4 goals, while the offense was completely shut down.
Despite getting blown out youth hockey style, they’ve still turned in a strong xGA/60 of 1.52 in their two games. The loss was an outlier, as this team is typically strong defensively and possesses high-end talent throughout the lineup.
Captain, Ryan O’Reilly, ripped his team publicly following the game, and I expect this team to come out strong and take advantage of a middling Sharks team.
Pick: Blues -1.5 (+145)
Carolina Hurricanes (-120) vs. Nashville Predators (+100)
Carolina disappointed many bettors Saturday, falling to the lowly Detroit Red Wings 4-2. The ‘Canes have struggled offensively thus far.
Uncharacteristically, the team played poor defensively, giving up breakaways and high-danger chances in close that ultimately led to their demise.
However, what is promising is the fact they’ve registered an impressive xGF/60 of 3.18. Additionally, their xGA/60 of 1.44 is not to be overlooked.
Nashville is off to a strong 2-0 start. They took advantage of an offensively deficient Columbus team that couldn’t execute any of their high-danger scoring chances while also playing poor defensively.
Filip Forsberg and newcomer Luke Kunin are both off to hot starts with two goals apiece. Goaltender, Juuse Saros, has performed admirably, as well.
What doesn’t give me full confidence in his team is that their xGF/60 in the opening series was a paltry 1.67.
Given the fact Carolina should have performed better offensively and Nashville not so much, I’m looking for the Hurricanes to come out victorious in this one.
Pick: Carolina -120
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