Top NHL Betting Picks for Saturday, February 13 (2021)
Saturday brings us a ten-game slate that begins at 3 pm EST. It also happens to be Hockey Day in Canada. So, you can imagine our neighbors to the north will be shotgunning Moosehead Lagers and devouring ketchup chips all day and into the night. I know I would be.
Today also marks one month since the abbreviated NHL season commenced. Thus far, our wagering endeavors have been profitable to us. Out of transparency and respect to you, our record currently sits at 46-39 (+13.36u). We’ll look to improve even further on these numbers as we get further into the season.
With that, let’s analyze a few matchups today that bring us good value.
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Ottawa Senators (+180) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-215)
These two teams met Thursday night, which resulted in a 5-1 Winnipeg win. On the surface, between the score and the Senators’ 2-12-1 record, a casual fan would suspect that the Jets dominated. While they certainly did on the scoresheet, I am here to tell you that they actually did no such thing.
From a metrics standpoint, the Sens were far superior in this game. I know you’re going to say, “but who cares, they still got smoked!†and you would be right. While analytics are not the end-all-be-all, they still help paint the entire picture of what happened throughout the game. So, if you’re 83 years old and reading this, now is your chance to tell me to get off your lawn before I continue.
Let’s take a look at Thursday’s game metrics at 5v5:
- CF%: OTT (61.) WPG (38.1)
- SCF: OTT (45) WPG (22)
- HDCF: OTT (19) WPG (7)
- xGF%: OTT (4.07) WPG (1.47)
As we can see here, Ottawa controlled the possession game, doubled Winnipeg in high danger scoring chances, and was expected to score 2.6 more goals than their foe.
The difference in this game was goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck stonewalled the Senators all night, making 41 saves. Ottawa’s kryptonite continues to be the tag team of Matt Murray and Marcus Hogberg, who’ve combined for -17.3 GSAA this season – which is terrible.
There’s a decent chance we see Winnipeg backup Laurent Brossoit in this matchup, which would bode well for Ottawa’s chances in this one. I’m not willing to lay -215 on a team that was outplayed in the previous matchup, so I will side with an Ottawa team that is due a better outcome.
Pick: Ottawa (+180) or better
Calgary Flames (-130) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+108)
As is the theme, these two also played each other Thursday. Though Calgary came out victorious, the result may have been different if not for Jacob Markstrom, who was stellar in net.
Vancouver has lost six-straight but has honestly played well in their past games. Outgaining both Toronto and Calgary in possession and scoring chances. While puck luck hasn’t been on their side, it’s a good sign as we can expect positive regression coming their way.
Let’s take a look at Thursday’s game metrics at 5v5:
- CF%: VAN (53.45) CAL (46.55)
- SCF: VAN (16) CAL (14)
- xGF: VAN (1.62) CAL (1.49)
- xGF%: VAN (52.19) CAL (47.81)
While these statistics aren’t as stark as the OTT/WPG game, it still tells us that the Canucks had an advantage, but they too ran into a hot goaltender.
With their improved play and metrics, I’m backing the Canucks to get right in this one – especially if David Rittich is in net for the Flames.
Pick: Vancouver (+108) or better
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.