Top NHL Betting Picks for Saturday, March 12

We’re almost a week away from the NHL trade deadline. And with a bit more than 20 games remaining in the regular season, this week could play a pivotal part in what teams decide to do at the deadline.

The push to the playoffs essentially starts now. Here are my best bets for Saturday’s 10-game slate.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) at Edmonton Oilers (+140), Total 6.5

This line has moved in Tampa Bay’s favor since it opened last night. However, I still love the Lightning at this number.

Tampa Bay enters this game riding a two-game losing streak, while Edmonton is coming off a 4-3 overtime victory against the Washington Capitals. Edmonton is on the outside looking in of the hotly-contested playoff race in the Western Conference, while the defending champs are fighting for an Atlantic Division crown.

The Oilers are essentially a two-man show. But they’re fortunate that those two men are among the best 10 players in the NHL. Connor McDavid has 81 points, and Leon Drasaitl has 79 on the season, which ranks second and third in the league, respectively.

However, Edmonton lacks much depth behind their top guys, and that’s especially the case now that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has missed time with an upper body injury. Zach Hyman is the next-leading scorer on Edmonton with 19 goals and just 37 points, and nobody else on the team has more than 31 points. When McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice, Edmonton struggles to maintain possession and generate scoring chances.

Even McDavid and Draisatil could have trouble generating opportunities against a deeper and more defensively disciplined Lightning club. Tampa Bay has given up just 442 high danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 play this season, the fifth-fewest in the league.

And if the Oilers are able to generate chances, they’ll have to get them past elite goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is coming off an uncharacteristically off night his last time out. Vasilevskiy allowed four goals on 32 shots in Tampa’s 4-1 loss to the Calgary Flames Thursday night. Assuming he’s between the pipes Saturday night, I’d assume we get a sharp effort from the Vezina Trophy candidate.

In the net for Edmonton will be Mikko Koskinen, who is wildly inconsistent but somehow the best option the Oilers have. Koskinen is allowing 3.04 goals per game in his 33 starts and has a .904 save percentage. Last time out against Washington, he made his share of incredible saves while letting up a couple of really questionable goals. That’s the Koskinen experience, and he could have his hands full with a Lightning team that’ll be coming into Rogers Place highly motivated to stop the losing skid.

The Oilers have the two best players in the game, but the Lightning have plenty of top-end talent and far more depth. Plus, Tampa Bay has a massive advantage in the crease. It’s a big number to lay with a road team, but I’m backing the Bolts in Edmonton.

The pick: Tampa Bay -160

New York Rangers (+115) at Dallas Stars (-129), Total 5.5 

Another team looking to bounce back and maintain its place in the standings is the New York Rangers, who come into Dallas as the losers of two straight.

The Rangers are a bit of an enigma. They sit in third place in the stacked Metropolitan Division but aren’t exactly analytic darlings. New York ranks 26th in expected goals-for percentage, below teams like the Ottawa Senators and San Jose Sharks. They also rank second-to-last in Corsi For Percentage, which gauges a team’s ability to control possession.

So how do the Rangers defy the metrics? Top-end scorers and elite goaltending. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Adam Fox lead the way for a Rangers team that was rebuilding not too long ago. Veteran forward Chris Kreider is also having a career year with 38 goals thus far. His previous career-high was 28 goals.

But the MVP for the Rangers is goaltender Igor Shesterkin, who leads the league with a 2.02 goals against average and a .939 save percentage. The expectation is Shesterkin will be between the pipes Saturday against a Stars team that struggles to score at even strength.

The Stars also have strong goaltending, as Jake Oettinger ranks sixth with a 2.30 goals against average. Dallas typically needs Oettinger to be great because this isn’t an explosive team by any means. Veteran Joe Pavelski actually leads the team in points and has made up for down seasons from Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.

The key to this game will be whether New York can force penalties and capitalize on the power play. The Rangers power play ranks second in the league, while Dallas’ penalty kill ranks 19th in the league at 79.1%.

Ultimately, I’m taking New York’s talent and goaltending to prevail.

The pick: Rangers +115

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