Top NHL Betting Picks for Saturday, March 26th
The NHL Trade Deadline has come and past. Now, it’s officially time for the playoff push to get underway. Here are my best bets for Saturday as we inch closer to the finish line of the 2022 regular season.
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New Jersey Devils (+150) at Washington Capitals (-177), Total 6.5
The New Jersey Devils have a lot of top-end scoring talent, such as Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. The problem is New Jersey can’t keep the puck out of its own net. The primary reason is goaltending, as New Jersey ranks 29th in goals against average and 31st in save percentage as a team.
Nico Daws will likely take the net for the Devils and he’s been rather paltry. Daws has a 3.07 goals against average, a .901 save percentage and a -4.1 goals saved above expected rating. He’s New Jersey’s best option in net, but that isn’t saying much.
The Capitals can also put pucks in the net often, ranking eighth in goals for. However, they’re also mediocre defensively. Vitek Vanecek will likely be between the pipes. While his 2.43 goals against average and .917 save percentage on the season aren’t glaring, it’s worth noting that Vanecek has surrendered at least three goals in four of his last five starts.
Washington’s defensive play has regressed as the season’s gone on, and the Devils have the speed and playmakers to give their defense fits in this one. With two shoddy goaltenders in net, I’d expect plenty of goals in D.C.
The pick: Over 6.5 goals -110 at Rivers
Carolina Hurricanes (-127) at St. Louis Blues (+108), Total 6
Both of these playoff contenders head into Saturday’s contest losers of four out of their last five. The Hurricanes have been one of the league’s best teams all season, as they rank sixth in expected goals for thanks to a deep lineup and outstanding goaltending. The Blues have been pretty solid all year long, but aren’t quite at the level of the league’s most dynamic squads.
The Hurricanes have been a far better team at controlling play at 5-on-5 than St. Louis. Carolina has posted a 55.69 Corsi For Percentage, which ranks second in the league, while St. Louis ranks just 22nd in that metric. The Canes also rank fifth in expected goals for percentage at even strength, while St. Louis ranks 25th. The Blues are also banged up, as Torey Krug, Scott Perunovich and Tyler Bozak will all miss this contest.
The key for the Blues has been a lethal power play that ranks third in the league at 26.4%. However, Carolina’s penalty kill is the best in the league, mitigating St. Louis’ best strength.
While we don’t know who will be in net for Carolina yet, you can expect strong goaltending from whoever gets the nod. We’d prefer to get Frederik Andersen in net, as he ranks second in the league in goals saved above expected and first in goals against average. But Antti Raanta is a quality backup who ranks seventh in goals against average and 13th in save percentage among netminders who have played at least 15 games this season.
St. Louis will roll with Ville Husso in net, as he’s taken over the starting gig from Stanley Cup champion Jordan Binnington. Husso has been magnificent this season, as he ranks fifth in save percentage, eighth in goals against average and seven in goals saved above expected.
The Hurricanes are a little tougher to trust due to their recent form, but they’re also coming at a decent discount. Andersen being in net is the icing on the cake, but the Canes are the stronger team and should play with plenty of urgency to snap out of its skid.
The pick: Carolina -127 (Rivers)
Columbus Blue Jackets (+245) at Minnesota Wild (-310), Total 6.5
The Minnesota Wild are winners of four straight and will now get a big boost between the pipes. Newly-acquired goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to make his Wild debut tonight at Xcel Energy Center.
Now, Fleury has not been great thus far during the 2021-22 season, posting a .908 save percentage and a 2.95 goals against average. However, Fleury is coming off a Vezina Trophy-winning season in Las Vegas and wasn’t helped by his teammates on a horrendous Chicago Blackhawks team.
Fleury will benefit significantly from having an actual defensive structure in front of him. The Blackhawks ranks 19th in scoring changes against at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, Minnesota is the stingiest in the league at allowing chances at 5-on-5.
Opposite Fleury will be Elvis Merzlikins, who has a ridiculous 3.40 goals against average this season. Like Fleury, Merzlikins hasn’t been helped by the play in front of his crease. Columbus has surrendered the second-most high danger chances at 5-on-5 play this season. To compare, Minnesota has given up the second-fewest.
The Wild are clearly the better team, so how do we take advantage at such a steep price? I recommend laying it with the Wild and hoping they win by two or more goals. However, another way to get a discounted price is to bet on Minnesota to win in regulation.
The pick: Minnesota -1.5 (-105 at Caesars)
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