Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, December 12 (2021)
As we move into December, teams have passed the quarter pole in their schedules. We’ve started to get a clearer picture of the landscape, with many teams starting to falter after hot starts while others begin to surge (e.g., Colorado).
The NHL has just five games scheduled for Sunday, but it’s a fantastic slate—nine out of the 10 teams in action boast winning records, with eight of those nine sitting in playoff spots. I’ve got a couple of plays that I believe hold strong value, so let’s get started.
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>
Matchup: Florida Panthers (+130) @ Colorado Avalanche (-150)
The Avalanche and Panthers will finish their season series on Sunday in Colorado (8 p.m. ET). The Panthers prevailed 4-1 in their first matchup, and the Avalanche will look to respond here. This game, featuring the top two offenses in the NHL by goals per game, is the marquee matchup of the day. Both squads project as elite teams—it should be a fantastic game.
Colorado (15-7-2) comes into this game on fire, having won their last three games by a combined score of 21-11. Granted, those three wins came against a coach-less Flyers squad, a Rangers team that started their fourth-string goaltender on the second leg of a back-to-back, and a Red Wings team that has now lost three straight. Still, the Avalanche are a legitimate cup contender, and their form of play is starting to prove it. They’ve leapfrogged Winnipeg for the top wildcard spot in the Western Conference and will look to capitalize on their games in hand and push for the top of the Central.
Florida, however, is no pushover. The Panthers (18-4-4) have collected points in five straight games and are tied for the league lead with 40 points. Captain Aleksander Barkov is currently day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but fear not—Barkov has already missed 10 games this season, and it hasn’t seemed to hurt the Panthers all that much. It’s also worth noting that Colorado is suffering injury problems of their own—Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri, who sits fourth in the NHL with 34 points, are both at risk of sitting this game out with lower-body injuries. Defenseman Bowen Byram will miss as well. Even if Barkov misses the game, don’t count the Panthers out.
The Panthers hold a clear edge over the Avalanche in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky (12-1-2) has been confirmed as Florida’s starter, and he has been superb this season. He ranks fourth in the NHL in terms of goals saved above expected with 14.0 (per MoneyPuck). By contrast, the Avalanche have suffered from subpar goaltending, with Darcy Kuemper, in particular, failing to live up to expectations (4.4 goals allowed above expected). I like the Panthers’ decision to go back to Bobrovsky after his victory in Arizona on Friday night—they’ll need him to win this game.
There is good reason to believe that Florida’s fantastic start to the season is no fluke and that their seemingly unsustainable pace of winning might actually continue. Specifically, they lead the league in expected goals share with a whopping mark of 56.65% at even strength. The Avalanche are also near the top of the league in this category, ranking eighth with a share of 53.79%. Still, the edge goes to the Panthers.
Overall, I see this game as a virtual coin toss. Both squads are in excellent form, both need the two points, and both will likely be missing a key piece or two. One factor that tilts in Colorado’s favor is that they are the home team—seven of Florida’s eight losses this season (regulation and overtime) have come on the road. However, given the Panthers’ advantage in net, I’m not scared off by the fact that they’ll need to secure this win in Denver. By making them relatively significant underdogs, the books are simply not giving enough credit to arguably the league’s best team. I’m willing to bet the Panthers down to about +115.
Matchup: Nashville Predators (+125) @ New York Rangers (-145)
The Predators will look to finish off a sweep of their four-game road trip when they travel to the Garden to face the Rangers (7 p.m. ET). It is the second of two matchups between these teams this season. The Rangers took the first in Nashville 3-1. Both teams currently hold the third playoff position in their respective divisions.
The Predators (16-10-1), having won five of their last six games, have surged into the playoff picture and are looking to continue their upward trajectory. The run has largely been driven by high-end goalscoring and dependable goaltending. One player in particular who has stepped up is captain Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring with 27 points in 27 games. He has a goal and six assists in the last four games, with a rating of +5. Over those four games, the Predators have averaged four goals per game—Josi’s hot run and Nashville’s winning ways are not independent of one another.
The Rangers (18-5-3), not to be outdone, have a stellar defenseman of their own leading the way. Reigning Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox leads all NHL defensemen with 29 points in 26 games, with 13 of those points coming in the last nine games. Of those nine games, the Rangers won eight—again, not a coincidence.
One factor that has a good chance to swing this game is the special teams matchup. The Rangers have the superior power play—the unit ranks fifth in the NHL with 8.41 xGF/60, while Nashville’s ranks 19th with a mark of just 6.81 xGF/60. The Blueshirts hold a similar advantage on the penalty kill, with their eighth ranking unit (6.21 xGA/60) standing in stark contrast to the Predators’ (7.82 xGA/60, 22nd in the league). If Nashville can’t stay out of the box, look for New York’s red-hot power-play unit, with seven goals in its last six games, to cash in.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the goaltending matchup. Earlier, I mentioned Nashville’s dependable goaltending—Juuse Saros is having a great year, with his 8.2 goals saved above expected, ranking 10th in the league. However, that mark pales in contrast to Igor Shesterkin, who ranks first with 14.9 GSAx. Now, Shesterkin has missed the last week with a lower-body injury and is questionable to make his return Sunday. If he sits, Alexandar Georgiev is expected to start. Georgiev has collected three wins since Shesterkin went down, allowing just five goals over the span. Georgiev is also known for settling in and raising his level of play when he receives more playing time, so he is likely sharper at the moment than his YTD statistics might imply. Still, Shesterkin is a much better goaltender, which is something to consider before betting on this game.
Nashville’s run will end at some point, and I think this is the spot to sell (relatively) high on them. Sunday’s game will be their third road game in four days; expect them to look a bit worn down. I’ve got the Rangers taking this one to reclaim first place in the Metropolitan division. The -145 line is a bit juicy for me, especially given New York’s uncertain goaltending situation, so I’m recommending a three-way money line bet (the Rangers need to win in regulation for it to cash). The Rangers tend not to take games to overtime, which might add a smidgen of value to the pick.
Pick: Rangers Regulation ML (+110)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.