Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, December 19 (2021)

It has been an extremely hectic week for the NHL. With the rise of the omicron variant, multiple teams around the league have been decimated with outbreaks; 72 players have landed in COVID-19 protocol in just the last five days. The Predators and Bruins have both been shut down through the Christmas break, with all of those games postponed to a later date.

There have also been quite a few postponements for other teams, as the NHL postponed five of Saturday’s games and another four on Sunday. That leaves us with just four of the eight formerly scheduled Sunday matchups. Let’s dive in.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>

Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights (-140) @ New York Islanders (+120)

The Golden Knights (19-11-0), winners of seven of their last eight, are looking to sweep their four-game road trip. The Knights are finally healthy and firing on all cylinders after starting the season slowly due to a slew of injuries. Just a couple weeks ago, they were sitting outside of a wildcard spot. Now, they are second in the Pacific by two points and hold two games in hand over the division-leading Ducks. They defeated the Devils by a score of 5-3 on Thursday and finished off the Rangers in a shootout on Friday, so this trip to UBS Arena (2 p.m. ET) will be their third game in four days.

New York has also shown a pulse as of late. After a horrendous start to the year that included an 11 game losing streak, they’ve collected three wins in their last five games. All of those wins came against non-playoff teams, but it’s an improvement nonetheless. This team has won four playoff series in the last two years, and it would be surprising if they don’t claw their way back into relevancy at some point this year. In order to salvage their season, the Islanders (8-12-5) have to start stringing wins together. They badly need this one.

The goaltending in this game projects to be evenly matched, with both teams likely to roll out their top options in net. Robin Lehner has been solid for Vegas this season—he has saved 4.5 goals above expected (per MoneyPuck). Not to be outdone, Ilya Sorokin sits just above him in the GSAx rankings with a mark of 5.8. If the Islanders opt to go with Semyon Varlamov, however, this matchup will tilt in the Knights’ favor.

When comparing these two squads in terms of their on-ice results, it isn’t much of a contest. Vegas ranks 13th in the NHL with an expected goals share of 51.01%, one that outclasses New York’s 48.82% xGF%. However, the gap between these teams is even larger than that differential might imply. The Golden Knights have amassed an expected goals share of 57.3% over their last eight games; that would rank first in the league. In essence, their early struggles drag down their cumulative metrics—they are a much better team at the moment than their YTD statistics indicate. Indeed, the Knights are playing like a cup contender, while the Islanders are still struggling to stay afloat.

Vegas has been vulnerable to high-end offensive attacks at points this season. They have allowed 3.03 goals per game, which is the 12th most in the NHL, and their underlying defensive metrics aren’t much better. However, the Islanders are not a team that will be able to exploit this weakness. New York has scored the third-fewest goals per game in the NHL, and their power-play ranks 26th with a conversion rate of 16.2%. Furthermore, star center Mathew Barzal will miss the game after being placed on the COVID-19 list. The formula for knocking off the Golden Knights is to capitalize on their mediocre defense and outscore their potent offense, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen on Sunday.

There may be a spot coming up to find value in fading the Knights, but this isn’t it. The last time the Islanders secured a win over a team in a playoff spot was on October 24th, and I don’t think this is the game where they snap that streak. The red-hot Knights are looking to grab the top spot in their division, and this line feels a tad short to me. Bet the Knights down to -150.

Pick: Golden Knights ML (-140)

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners— or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.