Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, December 5 (2021)
After a chaotic NHL Saturday that saw six(!) of 10 games require overtime, the league is capping off the week with six more games on Sunday. I’m considering a few plays for this slate, but one, in particular, stands out to me. Let’s dive in.
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Matchup: Calgary Flames (+105) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-125)
The final matchup of the day (10 p.m. ET) features two likely playoff contenders from the Pacific division. The Flames (15-4-5) currently lead the division; they’ve won seven of their last eight. The Golden Knights aren’t quite as hot, given that they’ve lost three of their last five. However, they dismantled the Coyotes by a score of 7-1 on Friday night. They’ll look to carry that momentum into this contest.
Vegas has generally been trending upward since their disappointing 4-8 start to the season, largely a function of horrendous injury luck. They’ve gotten healthier since but are still missing D Alec Martinez and C William Karlsson. Still, this is a better team than their 13-10 record might imply.
However, the discrepancy between these two clubs in terms of on-ice results is difficult to ignore. The Flames boast the league’s second-best even-strength expected goals share at 56.24%; the Golden Knights sit in 23rd with a share of just 48.43%. In other words, the Flames have generated significantly more offense than their respective opponents, while the Golden Knights have done the opposite. Calgary has also seen fantastic play out of their special teams, with both of their units ranking fifth in the NHL (25.8% conversion rate on the PP and 86.5% kill rate on the PK). By contrast, Vegas’ power-play has struggled to consistently produce, with a conversion rate of just 15.1% that ranks 25th in the league. Their results when shorthanded are a bit better—they have the 14th best PK in terms of kill rate at 83.3%.
Calgary also holds an advantage in net. Jacob Markstrom, who is expected to start on Sunday, has played at a Vezina-worthy level this season. According to MoneyPuck’s expected goals model, Markstrom has saved 11.4 goals above expected this season, a mark that ranks fourth in the league. Robin Lehner, the Golden Knights’ likely starter against the Flames, has been solid—he’s saved 3.5 goals above expected. That being said, Calgary clearly has an edge in the goaltending department.
The Flames have proven that they can beat quality opponents by grabbing victories against the Bruins, Capitals, Rangers (twice), and Penguins, to name a few. They have a stellar 11-2-2 record on the road, so I’m not too concerned about the Vegas atmosphere affecting the outcome of this game. Overall, I think the betting markets aren’t giving Calgary enough respect—the Flames are the better team, and they don’t deserve to be underdogs. I’m willing to bet them down to about -115.
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Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.