Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, January 2 (2022)
As promised, the NHL has successfully returned to play following the COVID-Christmas pause. New Year’s Day had the biggest slate since the pause, with nine games taking place. The games, which spanned the entire day, did not disappoint—the Hurricanes scored seven unanswered to erase a 4-0 deficit, the Islanders came back to defeat the Oilers in overtime, and the Blues dismantled the Wild in a Winter Classic that marked the coldest game in NHL history.
Seven games are scheduled for Sunday, with the first puck drop at 12:30 p.m. ET. There are a few spots I’m considering, but two stand out to me above the rest.
Get a Deposit Bonus up to $500 at BetMGM >>
Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning (-105) @ New York Rangers (-115)
Following the Rangers’ victory over the Lightning in a shootout Friday night, both teams traveled north to New York for this second leg of a home-and-home. The Rangers (20-8-4) badly needed both points on Friday—it was just their second win in six games, with the other coming over the lowly Coyotes. New York’s first game out of the holiday break was a 4-3 road loss to the Panthers, but the score was hardly indicative of the game’s play. Indeed, the Panthers dominated for long stretches and finally broke through with three consecutive goals in the third. It could have just as easily been a 6-2 rout. Both games of the Florida road trip exposed the Rangers’ main weakness—they are struggling to generate sustained offense at even strength, especially against quality opponents. Their record against teams currently in a playoff position is just 4-8-2.
The Lightning (21-7-5) are going through a rough patch of their own. Coming out of the break, they required overtime to defeat the last-place Canadiens, lost a 9-3 blowout to the Panthers, and then suffered the shootout loss at home to the Rangers. They will be coming with guns blazing on Sunday, looking to get back on track by flipping the script in New York (puck drop 12:30 p.m. ET). However, uncertainty in goal may cost them this game. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains on the COVID-19 list, and his status for the game is unknown. If he does not clear protocol, Tampa Bay will likely turn back to Brian Elliott, whose horrendous puck-handling cost them the game on Friday.
The Rangers’ situation in goal is equally cloudy. Igor Shesterkin played an excellent game on Friday after a shaky start against the Panthers on Wednesday. However, Sunday’s game is the first of a back-to-back, as the Oilers are visiting MSG on Monday night. New York will be playing their fourth game in six days at that point. As such, I would expect to see Alexandar Georgiev for one of these two games. Given Georgiev’s recent track record against Edmonton (12 goals allowed in his last two meetings), he is probably more likely to get the nod on Sunday against Tampa Bay. That would prove extremely advantageous to the Lightning—Shesterkin ranks second among all NHL starters in terms of goals saved above expected per 60 minutes of playing time, while Georgiev has been mediocre.
In terms of on-ice results, there is a clear gap between these clubs. The Lightning rank 9th in the NHL with an expected goals share of 53.44% at even strength; the Rangers rank 24th with a share of 47.86%. In other words, Tampa Bay tends to generate more offense than their opposition, while the inverse is true for New York. However, the Rangers do hold a sizable advantage over the Lightning in the special teams department. The Rangers’ power play ranks 7th in the league with a conversion rate of 23.9%, and their penalty kill unit ranks 5th with a kill rate of 84.2%. By contrast, both Tampa Bay special teams units rank 18th in the league, with success rates of 18.4% and 80.4%, respectively. If the Lightning cannot stay out of the box, they will find themselves in trouble against the clinical Rangers power play.
The skaters on both teams are reasonably healthy in terms of COVID, especially when considering the magnitude of absences that some teams are currently suffering. A couple pieces are absent—Anthony Cirelli for Tampa Bay, Ryan Lindgren and Kevin Rooney for New York. The Lightning are also missing star winger Nikita Kucherov, who is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury. That being said, I still lean towards Tampa Bay in this matchup. New York has not demonstrated an ability to sustain pressure against good teams, and that is a solid reason to fade them in this spot. I would advise waiting until the goaltenders are announced before placing your bets—if the matchup is Shesterkin vs. Elliott, I see this game as a toss up. With any other combination (especially if Georgiev goes), my lean is strongly towards Tampa’s side.
Pick: Lightning ML (-105)
Matchup: Calgary Flames (-145) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+125)
The Blackhawks (11-16-4), fresh off of a brutal 6-1 loss in Nashville on Saturday afternoon, travel home to host the Calgary Flames (7 p.m. ET). Chicago has lost four of their last five, conceding a whopping 22 goals over the span. Their situation won’t grow any easier on Sunday given their lack of rest, poor form, and a cloudy goaltending picture. Both Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen are in COVID-19 protocol entering Sunday, although there is a good chance that Fleury will start. Still, that isn’t exactly a reason for extreme optimism—Fleury has allowed 4.6 more goals than expected this season, per MoneyPuck.
Prior to the holiday break, the Flames (16-7-6) had lost four straight. However, we shouldn’t overreact—the losses came by a combined margin of six goals, and all four were to teams with winning records. They corrected this skid by exiting the break with a 6-4 victory in Seattle. Calgary will also have an extra day of rest in this spot—the 6-4 win was on Friday night.
The Flames have been one of the league’s top teams in terms of chance generation and suppression, while the Blackhawks have been one of the league’s worst. Specifically, Calgary ranks 5th with an expected goals share of 55.04% at even strength; Chicago ranks 30th with a share of just 45.25%. The key to the Flames’ clear edge over their opponents has been their stout defense. Their xGA/60 ranks top three in the league, a mark that has manifested itself in their results—they have allowed the second fewest goals (2.28) per game. On the other end of the spectrum, the Blackhawks have generated the second least expected goals per 60, and have thus scored the third fewest goals per game (2.26). Essentially, this game will see an elite defense (CGY) suppress a terrible offense (CHI).
Calgary will also look to capitalize on a distinct special teams advantage. Their power play, which ranks 5th highest in the NHL with 8.7 xGF/60, will face off against the league’s fourth worst penalty kill—Chicago has killed off just 75.3% of the power plays they have surrendered. Additionally, the Flames boast an elite unit when down a man, one that ranks fourth best with a terrific kill rate of 84.9%. So, Chicago will struggle to generate offense even if they find themselves on the man advantage, and won’t fare any better at even strength.
Finally, I expect the Flames to hold the edge in net no matter who starts for the Blackhawks. Jacob Markstrom has been among the NHL’s better goaltenders this year—he has saved 8.8 goals above expected. To summarize: Calgary is more rested, has the better goaltender, and is a significantly better squad at even strength and on both special teams. I see value on the Flames’ moneyline, but I’m confident that they get this one done in regulation. Play this line down to -120.
Pick: Flames Regulation ML (+105)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners— or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.