Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, November 21 (2021)
We’ve got a nice seven-game slate to cap off the weekend, highlighted by a couple of matchups between some of the top teams in the NHL. Here is my best bet for the day.
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Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs (-125) @ New York Islanders (+105)
The Islanders disappointed in their inaugural game at UBS Arena on Saturday night, losing 5-2 to the Calgary Flames in front of a raucous crowd of 17,255. They won’t find much respite, as the Maple Leafs pay them a visit on Sunday (puck-drop 7:30 ET).
Toronto is one of the hottest teams in the league—they’ve won 10 of their last 12, registering three shutouts over that span. They come into Sunday ranking third in the NHL with an expected goals share of 55.28%; the Islanders rank 17th with a share of 49.93% (per Evolving-Hockey). In other words, the Leafs have generated significantly more offense than their opponents, while the Islanders have not.
The Maple Leafs also hold a massive advantage in terms of special teams play. Their power play, which ranks seventh in the league with a conversion rate of 24.5%, will face off against the Isles’ subpar PK unit (which ranks 19th with a kill rate of 80%). The other special teams matchup is far more lopsided, as New York’s atrocious power play (30th with a conversion rate of just 13.2%) will attempt to break through against Toronto’s excellent penalty kill.
Another thing leaning in Toronto’s favor is New York’s developing COVID-19 situation. Their lineup has been, frankly, decimated in the last few days. Specifically, they recently lost defenseman Ryan Pulock to a lower-body injury and have placed Anders Lee, Adam Pelech, and Anthony Beauvillier on the COVID-19 list since. For those keeping score at home, that accounts for their top two defensemen, their captain, and another top-6 forward. Not ideal.
Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, so the fatigue factor should cancel out.
The one advantage the Islanders hold is in net—Joseph Woll, who allowed four goals in his first NHL start, is slated to make his second career appearance on Sunday night. He is an unknown, which is probably why this line isn’t more tilted in Toronto’s favor. The Islanders haven’t announced which of their goaltenders will start, but neither one of them has exactly been spectacular so far. Ilya Sorokin has outplayed Semyon Varlamov, so Toronto gains a bit of value if Varlamov gets the start.
The Islanders have lost five straight. Given the number of players they’re missing, I don’t see them righting the ship against a Toronto squad that has solidified themselves in the upper echelon of NHL teams. I was surprised to see this line close to even money when it opened. I like the value on the Leafs anywhere up to about -140.
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Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.