Top NHL Betting Picks for Sunday, November 28 (2021)

After the NHL’s scheduled Thanksgiving hiatus on Thursday, the league has roared back with two jam-packed days of action. Sunday’s slate is a bit lighter, with just six games taking place after the Islanders-Rangers matchup was canceled due to the Isles’ COVID outbreak.

Last week, our only play cashed with ease as the Maple Leafs (-125) dismantled the Islanders, 3-0, in the second-ever NHL game at UBS Arena. The pick was never really in doubt, as the Leafs controlled the flow of play from the opening puck-drop and thoroughly outplayed the Islanders over the entire 60 minutes.

This Sunday, there’s one play that I like, but it isn’t a money line. Let’s dive into the game.

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Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs (-175) @ Anaheim Ducks (+150)

The Maple Leafs travel to Anaheim to face the Ducks at 8 PM ET, the final contest of Toronto’s West Coast road trip. They are looking to sweep the trip—they defeated the Kings and Sharks on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Toronto has won 13 of their last 15 games, with four shutouts over the span. They rank first in the entire league with a 56.53% expected goals share on the season, so we know that their hot run is no fluke.

I’m confident enough in the Leafs that I would be inclined to put some money down on them against virtually any team in the league, but not at a -175 price (implied 63.6% chance of winning). Besides, the Ducks are no pushover. Sure, they dropped three straight before defeating the Senators on Friday, but those losses came after an eight-game winning streak that included victories over the Capitals (13-3-5) and Blues (10-7-3). Anaheim currently holds the third playoff spot in the Pacific division.

Rather than forcing a bet on the money line, I much prefer the value on the under in this matchup. Both teams started their backup goaltenders on Friday, so expect Jack Campbell and John Gibson to play. Campbell has had an excellent year to date; he ranks second in the entire league with 15.5 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck). Gibson hasn’t been quite that stellar, but he’s a perfectly capable starter. This under isn’t likely to lose because of shoddy goaltending.

In terms of special teams, only one power play projects to cause us trouble. The Ducks’ power play ranks slightly above average (13th) by xGF/60, but the Leafs’ penalty kill ranks 5th in the league in terms of xGA/60. With their kill and goaltending, Toronto should be able to handle Anaheim’s PP. However, there is definitely a good chance that we see some scoring on the other end. The Leafs have been stellar on the man-advantage—their unit is second in the NHL in terms of xGF/60. The Ducks, by contrast, have had the 10th worst kill by xGA/60, even though their kill rate is the 6th best. The discrepancy makes their PK a prime candidate for regression, a fact that is compounded by the Maple Leafs’ elite power play. We could easily see the Ducks surrender a power play goal or two.

While betting on the under when Toronto’s high-powered offense is involved may seem foolish, it has actually been a successful strategy as of late. Notably, the under is 5-1 in their last 6. How is that possible, given how much offense they’ve been generating? Well, the Maple Leafs have successfully lowered the goal totals by stifling their opposition, limiting their chances at even strength and special teams alike. The proof is in the pudding here, as Toronto has conceded just six goals over those last six games. With the Ducks having averaged just 2.25 goals/game over their last four, they may struggle to score on Sunday.

Pick: Maple Leafs/Ducks U5.5 (-110)

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Jason Yamaguchi is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive.