Top NHL Betting Picks for Thursday, March 25 (2021)
As the famous idiom goes, “the only two certainties in life are death and taxes.†This may be true, but I would like to add: “betting against the Tampa Bay Lightning is a bad idea.†So, now we have three certainties in life, okay? Thanks for understanding.
If you hadn’t followed Tuesday’s best bets column, you may not know what I’m talking about. Well, for the second time in a week’s time, I backed the Dallas Stars to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning. Why? I must be a dunce, that’s why.
The truth is, once in a while, taking too much of an analytical approach can blind us from the obvious. Although Dallas’ metrics were on par with Tampa’s, injuries and offensive ineptitude has hampered this team consistently and that wasn’t going to change against the defending Stanley Cup champions. While I still liked the spot and number, sometimes we just need to let it go.
But today is a new day, and it brings us a glorious 11-game slate, including a marquee matchup that, of course, won’t be on national television.
And be sure to follow me on Twitter — I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full writeup.
YTD: 108-92-1 (+28.48u)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Vegas Golden Knights (+143) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-167)
These two teams are the best in the west. Literally. Vegas currently sits in first place at 45-points with a game in hand on Colorado. To say this is a pivotal game would be an understatement.
In four games played against one another this season, they have each won two. Now, why is this line tilted heavily in Colorado’s favor? Apart from the home-ice advantage, injuries to Alex Pietrangelo and Max Pacioretty leave the Golden Knights without two of their best players.
Let’s compare their season-long metrics 5v5:
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
- CF%: 54.2 (VGK) 59.8 (COL)
- xGF%: 52.35 (VGK) 59.48 (COL)
- GF/60: 2.83 (VGK) 2.8 (COL)
- GA/60: 2.09 (VGK) 2.05 (COL)
Numbers courtesy of Evolving Hockey
Colorado grades out stronger in the possession category, but they’re nearly identical in goals scored and allowed per game. That makes it tough to find a significant edge between them offensively and defensively. So why don’t we breakdown the statistics for the projected starting goaltenders:
Marc-Andre Fleary (VGK):
- GAA: 1.93
- SV%: 931
- GSAA: 14.3
Philipp Grubauer (COL)
- GAA: 1.71
- SV%: .930
- GSAA: 14.3
Sensing a theme? Yet again, the metrics could not be any closer.
If the Golden Knights were slightly healthier, this game would be closer to a pick’em. As of publication, news has come out that Pacioretty has taken the trip to Denver for the two-game series. Whether or not he plays is to be determined. But if he does, it’s a boon for this team.
Regardless, due to the season history and analytical parity between these teams, I will back Vegas at this price.
Pick: Vegas (+143) or better
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.