Top NHL Betting Picks for Thursday, November 4 (2021)
Thursday brings us an exciting nine-game slate highlighted by a matchup between two powerhouse Eastern Conference foes. Below we’ll break down the betting angles of that game.
And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full write-up.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>
Washington Capitals (+130) vs. Florida Panthers (-150)
Washington enters tonight sitting 5-1-3 and third in the Metropolitan Division. They possess a solid +10 goal differential as the ageless Alex Ovechkin and his goal-scoring prowess pace the league with nine.
Injuries have plagued this team as star center Nicklas Backstrom remains on injured reserve while winger T.J. Oshie is sidelined with an ankle injury after blocking a shot last week.
In the short term, this team has been able to withstand their absence with the resurgent Evgeny Kuznetsov and antagonistic Tom Wilson.
In net, they’ve received mediocre play from the duo of Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov, but they should improve as the season goes on.
Florida’s season has gone swimmingly. They currently sit 8-0-1, good for second overall league-wide with 17-points.
This team may be the most complete in the league. Led by Jonathan Huberdeau and Sasha Barkov offensively and resurgent goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky who sports a tidy 1.81 GAA and 6.0 GSAA.
The recent departure of head coach John Quenneville due to the Chicago Blackhawks scandal has many worried. Still, this team possesses the depth and skill to overcome adversity on any given night.
Let’s look at each team’s advanced metrics this season 5v5:
Numbers courtesy of Evolving-Hockey
- CF%: WSH (53.89) FLA (58.1)
- xGF%: WSH (56.07) FLA (53.33)
- GF/60: WSH (3.02) FLA (3.13)
- xGA/60: WSH (1.50) FLA (1.54)
These numbers indicate that despite their lesser record and injury concerns, the Capitals have primarily matched the play of the Panthers from an analytical perspective.
Though Oshie remains out, it was announced that center Sam Bennett will be out for the ‘Cats, matching a loss of depth.
Sergei Bobrovsky starts in goal tonight, but the Capitals have the firepower to solve the Russian netminder. Not to mention the inevitable regression that looms over him.
This game will be tight, but I’ll be backing the road team in this one considering the underlying metrics and price.
Pick: Washington Capitals (+130) or better
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.