Top NHL Betting Picks for Thursday, October 21 (2021)
One whole week into the NHL season, and we’ve always experienced many ups and downs. I’ve experienced a miracle after betting the Tampa Bay Lightning live in their comeback victory against the Detroit Red Wings and have experienced numerous heartbreaks that have left me sitting in the dark pondering my existence. But we wouldn’t have it any other way. Right!?
We hope to bring victory and entertainment tonight by analyzing an intriguing matchup below from the 10-game slate.
And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full write-up.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Calgary Flames (-130) vs. Detroit Red Wings (+110)
Not sure why I continue to bet the Flames. They’re perennially my kryptonite. Consistently underperforming and falling short of expectations – reminiscent of the feedback I received in all math classes growing up. But hey, when will I ever use the Pythagorean theorem? That’s right, never!
Anyway, the Flames have started 0-2, succumbing to the Edmonton Oilers and their power play to pair with an excruciating loss to the Anaheim Ducks. Par for the course.
Things have gone well for the Red Wings thus far, minus the loss to the Lighting. But they’re young and will learn how to protect a lead. They’ve rattled off two straight wins as Tyler Bertuzzi continues to evolve along with a strong start from Moritz Seider on the blueline.
It’s a minimal sample size but let’s look at each team’s advanced metrics below:
Numbers courtesy of Evolving-Hockey
- CF%: CAL (61.12) DET (45.38)
- xGF%: CAL (59.77) DET (55.68)
- SF%: CAL (60.48) DET (49.51)
Despite the sample size, the Flames have played well. Penalty trouble and an otherworldly performance by Mike Smith derailed their chances against the Oilers. Similarly, John Gibson played superbly in their overtime loss to the Ducks and a defensive lapse that should never happen led to the tying goal.
The Red Wings have a solid young core and have played well, respectively, but their two wins have come against mediocre teams like Vancouver and Columbus.
The Flames are deeper offensively, defensively and have a slight edge in the net with Jacob Markstrom. In the offseason, Detroit traded for goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, but he’s been subpar to date with a -2.7 GSAA.
I believe we’ll see Calgary put it all together and come away with their first win.
Another angle I will look to play in this game is a prop for Matthew Tkachuk to score. To date, he’s been held off the scoresheet but ranks 15th league-wide in ixG (Total Individual Expected Goals) with a 1.82 mark. The number for this has yet to be released, but I will announce it on Twitter if it’s worth playing.
Picks: Calgary (-130) or better. Matthew Tkachuk to score (TBD)
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.