Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, April 5th (2022)
What an incredible playoff race we have shaping up in the NHL’s Western Conference.
Just 12 points separate eight teams for five spots in the postseason. As it currently stands, St. Louis, Los Angeles, Edmonton, Nashville, and Vegas are on the inside, while Dallas, Winnipeg, and Vancouver are on the outside looking in – but not by much.
The Stars sit just a point back of both the Predators and Golden Knights for a Wild Card slot. The Jets and Canucks are fading; however, they’re six and eight points back, respectively, and need every possible point they can get their hands on in the final weeks of the regular season.
As they battle on the ice, we’ll try to make some money at the betting window. Here are my two favorite wagers in the NHL on Tuesday.
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New York Rangers ML (-155; BetMGM)
This is one of the most expensive lines you’ll ever see me post in a best-bet series, but the market has yet to realize all the New Jersey Devils will be missing on Tuesday night.
Their best player and probably one of the 10 or 15 most electrifying players in the entire league, Jack Hughes, isn’t playing. It hasn’t been formally announced, but the 20-year old center took a knee from Islanders forward Oliver Wahlstrom in Sunday’s loss at home. Hughes needed a trainer’s help to get off the ice, and when he tried to give it another go and take a subsequent shift, he was in obvious discomfort. It didn’t look like a long-term injury, so the market is unsure if he’ll play, but with the Devils mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. With so much of their future riding on the shoulders of Hughes, there’s a slim-to-none chance they’ll push the envelope and ask him to suit up for this one. Especially against a Rangers team that’s big, heavy, and physical and probably isn’t the best matchup for a speedster playing on a stiff leg.
Hughes is the bulk of the Devils’ offense; he’s in the top three on the team in every offensive category, whether standard metrics like goals and points or advanced analytics like xGF and CF%. New Jersey is going to have difficulty driving offense without him. And secondly, they’ll most likely be missing Nathan Bastain. Who? Many are unfamiliar with the big winger, probably because he’s a fourth-liner on a poor team, but he serves a vital role for New Jersey. Bastain kills penalties effectively, and when you’re going up against the Rangers’ top unit that boasts the league’s top man-advantage goal scorer in Chris Kreider, you need all the help you can get.
Bastain also plays the net-front role on the power play for New Jersey, a power play that’ll already be missing Hughes. It’s hard enough to beat Igor Shesterkin, and having a severely hampered power play won’t make things easier.
This is also a revenge game for Shesterkin. The Devils poured in five goals on him in their last meeting in New Jersey and chased him from the game after two periods; you can be sure he wants to set the record straight tonight. Expect him to be at his best and play the Rangers down to -160. I would even consider New York on the puck line as long as it’s above +150, but that won’t be an official bet for us tonight.
Nashville Predators ML (-110; PointsBet)
This feels like a contrarian play despite Nashville being the home team, but that’s a key reason we’re on the Predators tonight.
Nashville has been on fire at home of late, and, dating back to the Pekka Rinne days, they’ve always had one of the most substantial home-ice advantages in the NHL. This team will be motivated to keep their slim grasp on a Wild Card spot, and the fans will also be loud and behind their team, which won’t be easy to deal with for the visiting Wild.
The Predators have won four in a row at Bridgestone Arena and seven of nine on home ice overall. And they’re not just beating up on the league’s bottom feeders; they’re getting critical points against solid teams. They’ve reeled off home wins over Pittsburgh, Toronto, twice against Dallas, and put the final nail in Anaheim’s playoff berth coffin, and now they’ll have a chance to grab an even firmer grip on a playoff spot of their own.
In net, Minnesota will probably turn to their newest member, former Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury has made three starts as a member of the Wild, and he’s won them all, but two of them came against Columbus and Philadelphia. A win is a win, but his numbers are inflated since two of his three starts came against weak teams. Nashville has also had success against Fleury, including this year. Back when he was a member of the Blackhawks, the Predators snuck three goals behind Fleury to notch the victory, and I expect them to employ much of the same approach tonight – get pucks to the net, and get bodies in front of the goaltender.
My limit on Nashville is -115, but I expect this line to move in the opposite direction, so you’re probably better served waiting to bet this one until right before puck drop.
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