Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, December 14th (2021)
We’re already two months into the NHL season, and sure, a lot of teams have fallen in line with where many experts and analysts picked them to finish before the year. But there are a few on the other end of the spectrum – the teams who’ve started hot and maintained their strong play throughout the first third of the year. The Minnesota Wild are one of those teams, and they’re not getting talked about enough.
Minnesota currently holds the largest division lead in the NHL, pacing the Central by four points. They’re third in the entire league in points percentage, one off the lead in total points, second in scoring, and fourth in goal differential. The Wild are also 8-1-1 in their last 10 and own a sparkling 10-2-0 record at home. It took guts to do what GM Bill Guerin did to part ways with both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, but it’s paid dividends so far.
As for our best bets, we split last week, making it the first time we didn’t turn a profit in three weeks. Let’s get back to our winning ways – here’s who I like this Tuesday.
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>
New York Islanders ML (-122)
We cashed in on the Islanders last week on the road in a good spot, and we’re going back to the well this week. The Islanders obviously started poorly, but they’re playing better of late and finally got the first home win monkey off their backs on Saturday against the Devils. They look looser, more cohesive, and I think they’re about to start rapidly climbing up the Metro Division standings.
The Islanders have now won two of three, and sure they were against two teams who don’t exactly represent the class of the Eastern Conference, but wins are wins when you’re struggling as bad as this team was. They seemed to have a bit of their mojo back, and their offense is beginning to show signs of life. They averaged under two goals per game up until the beginning of last week, but in the three subsequent games, they’ve buried 12 in the back of the net. This is a team whose Cup window is theoretically still open, but not for much longer, and given their place at the bottom of the division – the time is now to get a streak going.
Their opponent, the Detroit Red Wings, have been a pleasant surprise this year, and they’re playing way above where anyone predicted before the season. I think the surprising start has made the Red Wings overrated in the market – they’re not that good yet. Detroit gives up a ton of goals, fifth-most in the league. In fact, and despite being above NHL .500, their goal differential is -18. It’s a nice start, but it’s a bit flukey and now is about the time the Red Wings begin coming back to earth.
The skid has already begun as well – Detroit has gotten their doors blown off during their three-game losing streak, allowing 18 goals to Nashville, St. Louis, and Colorado. This matchup for the Islanders is perfect – a team struggling to keep the puck out of their own net just as New York is beginning to find their offensive groove. This team has too many veterans to keep struggling; the Islanders are on the way up, and I’d play them down to -130 on the road in the Motor City.
Toronto Maple Leafs ML (-125)
Few teams were hotter than the Maple Leafs heading into last week, but they’ve dropped three of five since hanging eight on the Avalanche on December 1st. Still, they won fifteen of the prior 18 games, which helped rocket Toronto up to tie for the division and league lead in total points. They’ll take to the road to battle the Oilers, who over the last few years have been a really tough team to beat on their home ice, but Edmonton is struggling of late and not only has their usual weakness come back to haunt them once again, the offense has dried up – leaving the door wide open for the Leafs to make an early-season statement north of the border.
The Oilers have dropped five in a row now and haven’t earned a point in any of those five losses. Oddly enough, Edmonton was 9-1-0 at home heading into this recent homestand, but the last four games of their five-game dry spell have come on home ice. Things are getting shaky for Connor McDavid and company, as the scoring touch has completely evaporated since this team returned from a recent successful road trip.
On the year, the Oilers are sixth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.38 goals per game. However, over the last five games, Edmonton has scored just eight total goals (1.60 per game), and one or two goals aren’t going to be close to enough to beat the high-powered Maple Leafs. Especially if the goaltending is going to continue to struggle. The Oilers have dressed three different goaltenders for at least three games this year; they rank 26th (Mike Smith), 27th (Stuart Skinner), and 45th (Mikko Koskinen) in save percentage.
In terms of goals-against average, Edmonton’s netminders somehow fare even worse. Skinner ranks 35th and is the only one of the trio to have a GAA below three, Koskinen is 54th, and Smith is 57th. Skinner is also the only one who has a positive goals saved above expectation metric, and it’s only 0.5 in eight games. For context, that means he’s only added a half-goal of value in net for Edmonton, and it ranks him fractional points behind the likes of Charlie Lindgren and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – two AHL-level goaltenders who’ve only seen three starts at the NHL level.
That level of goaltending isn’t going to work against Auston Matthews and company, a team averaging 3.21 goals per game on the year. I like the Leafs down to -135, even on the road.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.