Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, December 7th (2021)
Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror, which means the contenders are about to separate from the pretenders in the NHL – and it’s already started happening.
In the Metro, the toughest division in the NHL, the Capitals, Rangers, and Hurricanes have – barring a massive collapse or injury – set themselves up very nicely to at minimum grab a Wild Card spot, but more than likely finish in one of the top three guaranteed playoff spots in the division. The Atlantic shows the same trend; Florida, Toronto, and Tampa Bay are pulling away as we all expected, but perhaps a little earlier than we expected.
The West is a bit tighter, but Minnesota has opened up a seven-point lead over Winnipeg and company in the Central Division, and the Ducks are looking more and more for real with each passing day in the Pacific. They’re currently in third, behind Calgary and Edmonton, and sure, Vegas is going to get healthy soon enough, but credit Anaheim for continuing to play well.
Last Tuesday’s best bets left us in the red for the first time in almost a month, so let’s bounce back by fading one team who’s really struggling, and backing another team that has defined struggle so far this year.
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for today’s games >>
Winnipeg Jets ML (-105)
Things needed to change in Winnipeg, and the Jets knew it. Coming out of the Thanksgiving off day, the Jets had dropped four in a row and had only secured a point in one of those games – a shootout loss to the Oilers. On Black Friday, the Jets suffered their worst defeat of the season, a 7-1 dismantling at the hands of the division-leading Wild. However, since then, the Jets have looked like a completely different team and have won three of four as a result. How’ve they done it? They’ve gone back to their roots as a heavy forechecking team that nobody wants to play against, and it’s paid off. Winnipeg will now meet another struggling team, Carolina, and the last team any squad in a skid wants to face is one that’s going to beat them up. And that’s why I love this matchup for the hometown Jets.
The Jets are 12th in hits per game, which isn’t anything spectacular, but they’ve risen four spots over the last four games, so they’re trending upwards. Carolina is just 21st in hits; they don’t want to get into a physical battle because they usually don’t have to as one of the better teams in the NHL. On Tuesday, they’ll have to, and it’s advantage Winnipeg.
I mentioned Carolina isn’t playing well lately, and a lot of their bad fortune of late has come on the road. The Canes have won just two of their last seven games and are 1-2-1 away from Carolina over that span. Their only wins are against the hapless Sabres and the banged up Flyers. There’s a perception around this team that they’re winning night-in and night-out because they started so hot, but few are realizing just how poorly they’ve been playing over the last couple of weeks. And now they’ll hit the road for a western Canada trip? Bad news is piling up for the Hurricanes, and the Jets are well-rested and ready. Winnipeg has played just twice since November 29th, and rest has served them well. They poured in eight goals on the Devils and six more on the Maple Leafs.
Enter Carolina, who has been struggling to put the puck in the net. In their last five losses, they’ve combined for just seven total goals. Good luck keeping up with the red-hot Jets. Play Winnipeg down to -115 at home; the wrong team is favored here.
New York Islanders ML (-135)
I’m buying low on the Islanders, a team who is already almost mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just weeks after quite a few people picked them to get to their third straight conference final. And I’m selling high on a Senators team that’s playing far above their heads.
Starting with the Islanders – let’s just say it’s not going well. Thirteen-straight road games to start the year effectively doomed them, and they’ve got just 15 points on the year. For context, that’s third-fewest in the league, tied with Montreal who fired their entire front office as a result. New York has now lost 11 games in a row, but they’ve collected points in each of the last three; so they’re trending in the right direction. Something’s got to give here, and I think this is finally the night they get back in the win column as evident by their stronger play lately where they’ve only allowed nine goals in the last three games, all three of which were overtime losses. So, they’ve only given up six regulation goals, which is fantastic.
Incredibly, the Islanders haven’t won a single game at their new arena, so a trip away from home is exactly what they need to play more freely. Even better for New York, they’ll battle Ottawa, one of two teams below them in the NHL standings. Ottawa can’t keep the puck out of the back of their net. They allow 3.91 goals per game; what better way to kick-start the Islanders offense? The Senators are also cramming games in thanks to their COVID pause, so there are going to be some tired legs on the Ottawa bench.
They’ll be playing back-to-back nights after flying home from New Jersey on Monday, and Tuesday’s game will already be their fifth in just seven December nights. What’s even worse for the Senators is each game has been alternating home and away, so they’ve been flying nearly every day this month. Not great for rest, and not great going up against the most physical team in the league that leads the NHL in hits.
Ottawa has beaten two of the league’s best teams this month – Carolina and Colorado – so we’re selling high on them to come crashing back to earth. Play New York down to -140.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.