Top NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday, January 26 (2021)
We enter our third week of NHL betting on a solid run. Thus far, we’ve gone 23-14 on the season for +10.26 units. We’ll look to keep the momentum going and break down the top picks for today’s thirteen-game slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Toronto Maple Leafs (-112) vs. Calgary Flames (-105)
These two squads faced off Sunday in a hard-fought battle that saw Toronto emerge victorious, 3-2.
Entering this season, any hockey analyst would have told you that Hell would freeze over before the Maple Leafs became a solid defensive team. Well, I write you today after taking a brief skate through the underworld, as this is currently the case.
In the last five games, the team hasn’t given up more than two goals in any contest and has registered a GA/60 of 2.04 on the year collectively. Although a small sample size, this does tell us that their play and expected metrics both align. So, while the offense was supposed to carry them, they’re playing a much more balanced game overall.
Calgary has played three fewer games than the Leafs but has produced similar numbers. They’re averaging a GA/60 of 1.72, as Jacob Markstrom has played fantastic in net.
Surprisingly, the Flames hold an edge in expected goals as they’ve registered an xGF/60 of 2.41 compared to the 2.13 mark set by their foe. While the Leafs may possess slightly more high-end scoring talent, the Flames’ top-six forward group can compete with anyone when firing on all cylinders.
After having a week off before game one of this mini-series, I’m looking for the Flames to find their legs and scoring touch in this one.
Pick: Calgary Flames -105
San Jose Sharks (+185) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-220)
These two teams enter Tuesday night with identical 3-3 records and are tied for fourth in the West Division.
The casual fan may look at the standings and believe these two teams are similar in skillset. However, this assumption would be a fallacy of the highest degree.
When analyzing the advanced statistics of this matchup, the Avalanche are in a completely different stratosphere.
The Avs own an xGF% of 55.45 to the Sharks’ 43.63 and own an advantage in the corsi category, as well. On average, they’re giving up over two goals per game but own an xGA/60 of only 1.9. Additionally, the team is scoring 1.62 goals per game on average – but registering an xGf/60 of 2.36. While they’ve struggled out of the gate, much of this has to do with bad luck.
The Sharks have offensive upside but own some of the worst defensive metrics in the NHL. Not to mention the goaltending tandem of Devan Dubnyk and Martin Jones leaves much to be desired.
Expect the Avalanche to control the pace and possession game in this one.
Pick: Avs -1.5 (+123)
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.