Top NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday, March 16 (2021)
Tuesday brings us an action-packed seven-game slate, with a key rematch of last season’s Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars, which we will analyze below.
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YTD: 96-81 (+27.49u)
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Tampa Bay Lightning (-148) vs. Dallas Stars (+128)
It’s been a tale of two seasons between these teams. Tampa sits in second place atop the central division, a mere point behind the first-place Carolina Hurricanes. On the other hand, Dallas has mold growing on their jerseys due to their basement-dwelling presence in the standings.
The Stars have dealt with their fair share of adversity between COVID-19 outbreaks and a myriad of postponed games that disrupted their flow early on. Despite a 9-9-6 record, the team hasn’t necessarily played poorly. The biggest issue comes on offense, as no one besides Joe Pavelski and John Klingberg generates any. The absence of Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov have contributed to these woes, but at some point, Jamie Benn and Roope Hintz will need to step up.
As for Tampa, well, they’ve been Tampa. Currently leading the NHL with a +34-goal differential, they’re doing it without Nikita Kucherov, which makes it all the more impressive. In the net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been stellar, posting an otherworldly 16.5 GSAA. With four deep lines, the Lightning looks like a candidate to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions.
If you merely watch the standings, you will think these teams are worlds apart. However, the advanced statistics tell us differently:
- CF%: 52.26 (DAL) 52.52 (TB)
- xGF%: 53.78 (DAL) 52.79 (TB)
- GF/60: 2.1 (DAL) 2.69 (TB)
- GA/60: 1.79 (DAL) 1.91 (TB)
Apart from offensive production, Dallas has been just as good or better than Tampa in these categories.
Let’s also analyze the last game these two played against one another earlier this month. Resulting in a 2-0 win for Tampa Bay.
- CF%: 59.52 (DAL) 40.48 (TB)
- HDCF: 14 (DAL) 4 (TB)
- xGF: 2.31 (DAL) 0.89 (TB)
- xGF%: 72.21 (DAL) 27.79 (TB)
From a metrics standpoint, Dallas dominated every facet of this game as their offense let them down yet again. However, we’ve seen this team score six, five, and three goals in recent games, signaling they’re breaking out of the offensive slump. With Alexander Radulov back in the lineup and on home ice, I will back Dallas in this one.
Pick: Dallas (+128) or better
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.