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Top NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday, March 23 (2021)

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If you’re feeling a sense of déjà vu, it’s because we again have last years’ Stanley Cup finals rematch taking place on a Tuesday. If you followed last week, you might remember the Dallas Stars making a triumphant last-minute comeback to tie the game. You may also remember them losing in a shootout. If you’ve backed this team recently, you’re used to this type of result. So, there’s no way we would back-bet them again, right? Right!? Read on below to find out.

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YTD: 107-90-1 (+29.53U)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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New Jersey Devils (+135) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-159)

Death, taxes, and the Philadelphia Flyers enduring goaltending issues. Carter Hart most certainly is the future, but this season has been one to forget. Hart currently owns a -17.7 GSAA, which to my knowledge, is not very good.

Pegged Stanley Cup contenders entering the year, the Flyers have largely been a disappointment. The Selke Trophy winner from 2020, Couturier is both an offensive and defensive force that drives play. Unfortunately, a lingering hip issue has forced him to miss numerous games, hurting this team significantly.

The Devils are in the midst of a rebuild but no doormat. Fresh off taking two of three games from the Pittsburgh Penguins, this squad will look to inject further misery into this underachieving Flyers team. While many will think these two division rivals are light years apart, the season-long metrics 5v5 tell us a different story.

Number’s courtesy of Evolving Hockey

  • CF%: 51.32 (NJD) 48.67 (PHI)
  • xGF%: 48.44 (NJD) 48.74
  • xGF/60: 2.3 (NJD) 2.17 (PHI)
  • xGA/60: 2.45 (NJD) 2.28 (PHI)

As we can see, there’s little separating these teams analytically. While the Flyers certainly possess a deeper roster, the Devils play a tight grinding game and own a slight edge in net with Mackenzie Blackwood, who owns a 0.2 GSAA. Although that is nothing to write home about, it is significantly better than Hart’s -17.7 mark.

With this Philadelphia team in peril, I will back the Devils here.

Pick: NJ Devils (+135) or better

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) vs. Dallas Stars (+132)

One week ago, tonight, I sat on my friends’ couch watching these teams battle. I had backed Dallas, while my buddy laid the chalk. As the Lightning went ahead 3-1, I was called a plethora of inappropriate names, per usual, when I’m wrong.

However, two late goals by the Stars knotted the game at three – much to the chagrin of my counterpart. As mentioned above, we know how this one ended, so I don’t need to explain further. Adding further insult to injury, though, I then noticed his dog had chewed a hole in my sneaker. Fantastic stuff.

So, what will I be doing this evening? You betchya, heading right back over to that house, betting the Dallas Stars and using a power drill to put a hole in that dog’s favorite chew toy. Apart from being a masochist and making the ASPCA’s Most Wanted list, the reason is much the same as these squads are closer under the hood 5v5 than we think.

  • CF%: 52.45 (DAL) 53 (TB)
  • xGF%: 54.03 (DAL) 53.51 (TB)
  • xGF/60: 2.08 (DAL) 2.41 (TB)
  • xGA/60: 1.77 (DAL) 2.09 (TB)

No doubt the Lightning are the more explosive team, but Dallas can keep up by playing their tight checking and defensive-minded system. On home ice, seeing improved goaltending, and off an ugly loss, I’m yet again backing the green team.

Pick: Dallas (+132)

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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.