Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, November 16th (2021)
The NHL officially has its first COVID issue of the 2021-22 season. The Ottawa Senators have sent 10 players to the virus list, causing all three of their games this week to be postponed, including one I had my eye on tonight against the New Jersey Devils. The Senators have been struggling mightily of late, too, posting just a 2-7-1 record over their last 10, so the issues are mounting in Ottawa.
Some other teams have been hitting the skids over the past few weeks as well. The Sharks and Sabres were two teams who got off to surprisingly hot starts when many picked them to finish close to the bottom of the league, and lately, they’ve played more like the teams we thought they’d be. San Jose has earned just seven of a possible 20 points over the last three weeks, and Buffalo just eight of 20.
On the opposite, more positive side of the spectrum, the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs have started rolling after slow starts, and Carolina has stayed as hot as they were at the beginning of the season. Perhaps more surprising are the Ducks and Predators, two teams considered “wild card contenders†at best before the season began. The Ducks are on a nine-game point streak, winning seven of those games, while the Predators are somehow playing even better. Nashville has grabbed 17 of their last 20 possible points – the most in the NHL over that span.
Two of the teams mentioned above in the red-hot category are squaring off on Tuesday, and one of them made my best bet list. Let’s check out what’s on tap tonight on the ice.
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Carolina Hurricanes ML (-115)
As mentioned just a few sentences ago, the Golden Knights are playing really, really well of late. After a 1-4-0 start plagued by injuries, Vegas has ripped off eight wins in their last 10 games to pull back into the top half of the Pacific Division. They’ll welcome one of the only two teams who’ve earned more points over the last three weeks into T-Mobile Arena – the Carolina Hurricanes – and I think Carolina is a brutal matchup for the Knights, despite being the visitors.
Carolina has been the NHL’s best team thus far. Their .846 points percentage is the best in the league by a huge margin – .060 points ahead of second-place Edmonton. And they’ve done it in a variety of ways – namely by keeping the puck out of their net. The Hurricanes have allowed the fewest goals in the National Hockey League, which obviously presents a bad matchup for really any team, but especially so for a Vegas team that is still banged up despite welcoming back their captain Mark Stone.
Goals haven’t been easy to come by for Vegas. They average a shade over three per game, which is right in the middle of the pack, but they’ve taken advantage of the weaker teams on their schedule and haven’t gotten it done against the top-tier teams at full strength. The Knights convert on just 14.7% of their power plays, sixth-worst in the league, and score just 2.1 goals per game against teams currently in a playoff position. Carolina gives up the fewest goals in the league and has the fourth-best power play – Vegas will have trouble scoring.
The Knights are also going to have a lot of issues with the heavy speed and forechecking style of Carolina. Vegas has the sixth-lowest high-danger save percentage in the league, and the Hurricanes live in high-danger areas. They convert on 23.5% of their power-play chances, and they’re fifth-best in scoring chances among all 32 teams.
Vegas is still banged up, and these teams play contrasting styles. The Knights may be the home team which is usually a distinct advantage, but not in this game. Take Carolina down to -125 to grab a big win in Sin City.
Buffalo Sabres / Pittsburgh Penguins Over 6 (+100)
You can also grab over 5.5 at around -130, but I’ll sacrifice the potential of a push to get even money here. This is a pretty simple handicap – these teams can score, they have trouble keeping their opponents out of the back of their net, and the Penguins are getting healthy up front. Here are some key trends.
The over has cashed seven times in 12 games on the Pittsburgh side, including six of the last 10 and five of nine at PPG Paints Arena. They just got thrashed by the Capitals 6-1, so they’ll be motivated to take out their frustrations on a lesser and struggling Sabres team. Pittsburgh is sixth in xGF% this year, and that’s without playing a complete lineup one single time this entire season. They’re also somehow seventh in high-danger chances, even without their big guns, and their goaltenders are ninth from the bottom in keeping high-danger chances out of the net.
Perhaps most encouraging on the Pittsburgh side, besides the motivation, is that it’s Sidney Crosby’s second game back in the lineup. It goes without saying that the Penguins go as he goes, and reuniting him with his usual top-line mates Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust should accelerate the process. Especially against a Buffalo blue line allowing the 12-most goals per game in the league and a goalie tandem that features two netminders who are in the negatives in terms of goals saved above expectation. There have been 16 combined goals in the Penguins last two games, so we should see plenty tonight.
On the Sabres side, they’re 7-6 to the over, including six of their last 10. They also have hit the over in four of their six road games on the year and six of 11 games as an underdog. Sabres games have really come to life lately as well – the last seven games they’ve played in have averaged 6.2 combined goals, and that span includes games against some low-volume teams like the Kings, Kraken, Sharks, and Red Wings. This one should feature a much more up-tempo pace against a more dangerous Penguins lineup.
Buffalo is also past the Jack Eichel saga. Not that he was playing or anything, but the situation was holding a black cloud over the organization. The trade should allow players to play more loosely. In a road game that isn’t much of a travel disadvantage, I like Buffalo to come out firing on net, hopefully against backup Penguins netminder Casey DeSmith. I still really like the over even if Tristan Jarry starts, but DeSmith has only played in three games this year, and the Penguins have a three games in five night road trip upcoming; this could be the perfect chance to sneak in a start for the back up against a weaker opponent in Buffalo on home ice. DeSmith sixth from the bottom in goals saved above expectation, allowing 5.48 goals that analytics deemed should have been saved.
This is a value play at plus-money, so don’t take it at anything lower than -105. If you feel more comfortable with the over 5.5, don’t pay more than -135.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.