Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, November 2nd (2021)
The 2021-22 NHL season is quickly shaping up to be a case of the haves and the have-nots – especially in two of the four divisions.
In the Atlantic Division, the Panthers still have not lost in regulation and have captured 17 of a possible 18 points so far. That already puts them six points clear of a second-place tie between Buffalo and Tampa Bay and 13 points up on the last-place Montreal Canadiens – a team who reached the Stanley Cup Final just a few months ago.
The Central Division is much tighter up top. St. Louis has earned 12 of a possible 14 points, but they’re only two points ahead of Winnipeg and Minnesota. However, the bottom of the Central looks incredibly bleak. Chicago won its first game of the year on Monday and now has just four of 20 possible points on the year – and they’re not even in last place! That dubious honor belongs to the winless, one-point Coyotes who don’t look poised to compete any time soon.
Keeping all that in mind, here are my three favorite bets for Tuesday.
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New Jersey Devils ML (-105)
There are some -110 and -115 out there as well, so shop around. New Jersey has played seven games to date; six at home and the lone road game just a short ways away in Pittsburgh. They’ll be thrown right into the road trip fire, and instead of easing into the first real travel post-COVID with an easy trip, the league will send the Devils all the way out to the west coast. The books view this as a negative, but New Jersey is starting to come together a little bit as they get used to playing without Jack Hughes.
The Devils just completed a strange back-to-back this past weekend, defeating Pittsburgh on Saturday night and losing in a shootout to Columbus at home on Sunday – a game that oddly started at 5:00 PM. That’s not easy for any team, traveling home and starting a game two hours earlier than normal the next day, but outside of a dreary first period – the Devils flat out controlled the game against Columbus as they did against the Penguins. Postgame, MoneyPuck gave the Devils a 63.4% chance to win, so despite losing, New Jersey was the better team. This young team is getting better day by day.
They’ll also be starting someone other than Scott Wedgewood in Anaheim, and nothing against Wedgewood, but he’s the team’s number three goalie. Keep in mind that Wedgewood and AHL goalie Nico Daws have played more combined NHL minutes than the Devils’ one-two punch of Jonathan Bernier and Mackenzie Blackwood, and this team is still 4-2-1. Bernier will probably start, and he’s been fantastic to date, posting a perfect 3-0-0 record and saving 1.1 goals above expectation per start (10th among all goaltenders).
This is also a pretty big mismatch in terms of shot ratios. The Ducks have allowed the most shot attempts of any team, and their shots for percentage of 44.53% is third-lowest in the NHL. The Devils are sixth in shots for (54.62%) but 26th in shooting percentage (6.9%). They’re firing a ton of pucks. They’re just not getting bounces. That luck is bound to change, and they’ve got a golden opportunity to do so against a team that is constantly losing the shooting battle. The Devils also have surrendered the fewest shots of any team and have an xGF% that ranks seventh in the league. If the Ducks aren’t capable of creating opportunities against average teams, they’re going to struggle even worse against a New Jersey team that’s been stout at five-on-five.
As long as the Devils stay out of the penalty box, they should be able to control the puck enough to bury a few chances and keep Anaheim from creating too many of their own. Play this one down to -110.
Philadelphia Flyers 60-Minute Line (-130; 0.75u); -1.5 (+130; 0.25)
If you’ve followed my Premier League best bets, you know I like to split a unit up a bit when there’s value on an alternate line. In this case, getting any team plus-money to beat the terrible Coyotes by more than a goal is a gift – especially if it’s the high-octane Flyers.
Let’s recap how the Coyotes 2021 season has gone thus far. Arizona is 0-8-1, collecting just a single point through the first three weeks of the year. They’ve been shut out as many times as they’ve scored more than two goals (twice each), and they’ve lost seven of nine games by multiple goals. The Coyotes are allowing an astounding 4.22 goals per game, worst in the NHL, and they’re scoring just 1.44 goals per game – also the worst. The tank is going well in Arizona; the on-ice play, however, is not.
To be fair to the Coyotes, however, they’ve played an incredibly difficult schedule, including seven games in a row against true Stanley Cup contenders. So yes, their luck has to turn at some point. I just don’t think it’s tonight. Philadelphia is a really tough place to play, and this is Arizona’s last game out east and the fifth of a six-game road trip that ends in Anaheim on Friday. They’re road-weary, and we may even see a backup goaltender, as the starter Karel Vejmelka has already racked up six starts and seven appearances in his first NHL season.
On the Flyers’ side, they can certainly score. They’re averaging 3.57 goals per game, seventh in the NHL, and they’ve already tallied five goals or more three times in just seven games. Goaltending and defense have doomed them in recent years, and while the issue isn’t totally fixed, their goaltenders are both in the green in terms of goals saved vs. expectation. Plus, Arizona isn’t a team built to expose their opponents’ defensive and goaltending woes.
This pick may be a bit square, but laying only -130 for the Flyers to notch a regulation win against a winless Coyotes team that has been to overtime just once, and getting +130 odds on them to win by more than a goal – something that’s been done seven times against Arizona already – is too good to pass on. Play the regulation line down to -145, and play the puck line down to +115.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.