Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, November 30th (2021)
Just five months ago, the Montreal Canadiens were battling the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final. They came up short, but Habs fans were optimistic about the future of their team with a young coach, an enthusiastic general manager, a rough-and-tough captain, one of the best goaltenders in the world, and a crop of young players who had already made an impact at the NHL level.
But, it’s all come apart at the seams in Montreal.
The Canadiens lost their captain Shea Weber, possibly for the rest of his career, due to a multitude of nagging injuries. Their goaltender Carey Price missed the start of the season with health concerns. They waived goodbye to one of their young stars Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was offered-sheeted by Carolina, and parted ways with their top defensive forward as Phillip Danault signed with the Kings. And now, on top of all the missing personnel, the Canadiens have dismissed GM Marc Bergevin after the team’s 6-15-2 start. Quite the fall from grace for one of the NHL’s Original Six franchises.
Montreal is in action Tuesday night, but they won’t make our weekly best bet card. Instead, here are two underdogs who I think are undervalued and are poised to pull the upset.
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Washington Capitals ML (+115)
This is one of the rare nights in the NHL where there are no home underdogs, so we’re taking two road dogs – starting with the red-hot Capitals. This is a clash of two of the league’s best teams as the Capitals enter south Florida winners in nine of their last 11 games while earning points in 10 of those contests. They’re also 7-2-2 on the road and with very little home-ice advantage to speak of in Florida – fans rarely top 60% capacity – Washington won’t face much adversity.
Ironically, despite the lack of fan support, Florida is 11-1-0 at home, easily the best mark in the league. Something has to give here, and I think Washington is clicking on all cylinders, presenting an issue for a Panthers team that has stumbled a bit of late.
This is already the third meeting of the year between these two Eastern Conference powerhouses. Washington came out victorious on their home ice just under a week ago thanks to an Alex Ovechkin hat trick, and the Capitals nearly spoiled the Panthers’ home winning streak earlier in the year but fell 5-4 in overtime. Many were down on Washington coming into the year because of their age, but they’ve been no worse for the wear and are used to being the hunted. Florida isn’t, they’re usually the hunters, and that experience level will factor in here.
The Panthers were also this offseason’s darling after giving the Lightning a run for their money in the playoffs last year. Because of the high expectations, many have yet to realize how the Alexander Barkov injury has slowed this team down – including the betting market, which is why I think we’re getting a generous price on the Caps.
Barkov was injured during a 6-1 win over the Islanders, and the Panthers reeled off three more wins after that. But let’s dive deeper. They beat the last-place Islanders as New York was about to conclude a 13-game road trip, they topped the young Devils without Jack Hughes, they put together a solid win over a strong Wild team, and then knocked off the struggling Flyers in overtime. Since then, Florida has lost to Washington and a poor Seattle team at home, and the goal production has dipped. The Panthers average 3.67 goals per game – third in the NHL. But without Barkov, they’re averaging two-thirds of a goal fewer per game, which would rank them 14th in the league. Barkov is also the reigning Selke winner, and he’s sorely missed shutting down top lines. Florida is fifth in goals allowed per game with Barkov and 13th without him.
Washington, especially with how their top two lines are playing, isn’t a team you want to go up against when you don’t have a shut-down center to at least limit Ovechkin. The Capitals may be the road team, but they’re rolling right now, and we’re not passing on them at plus-money against a Panthers team missing their best player. Play the Caps down to +105.
Columbus Blue Jackets ML (+135)
Perhaps the NHL’s most surprising team this year is the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets completely overhauled their team this offseason, switching up their coaching staff and shipping out key players, and rejuvenating the roster with youth. Many experts picked Columbus to finish a distant-eighth in a loaded Metropolitan Division as they rebuilt, but they’re currently in fourth place and would be the top Wild Card if the season ended today.
Blue Jacket teams of the John Tortorella era were adept at keeping the puck out of their net. The new-age Blue Jackets score – a lot. They’re sixth in goals per game as a team, and they’ll be taking on a Predators team who has had all kinds of trouble keeping the puck out of their net recently. Nashville allows an even 3.0 goals per game on the year, right in the middle of the NHL pack. But lately, it’s been a different story. Since a postponed game against Ottawa gave the Preds an extended four-day break, they’ve allowed 4.2 goals per game, and only one of their five opponents over that stretch – Colorado – is a top-10 scoring team.
Columbus isn’t really a squad that peppers the net with shots, nor do they make it a point to control the game’s flow. Their calling card has been capitalizing on high-danger chances and limiting high-danger chances for their opponents. Blue Jackets goaltenders are eighth in the league in high-danger save percentage, while Nashville’s netminders rank 25th. That’s where games are won when two gritty teams like this battle, and the clear edge is with Columbus.
Nashville also struggles against the style of Eastern Conference teams and has just a 2-4-0 record to show for it. On the other hand, Columbus has absolutely dominated the West, winning eight of their 10 contests against the cross-conference foe. They’re a more malleable team, and they’ll need that flexibility to come into play on the road in a usually-hostile environment at Bridgestone Arena.
We’re getting a ton of value on Columbus because of public perception – the casual fan remembers their offseason and still thinks this is a poor hockey team that has to come back down to earth eventually. We’re nearly a quarter of the way into the season – this is exactly who Columbus is, and they’re hot right now, winning five of their last seven. Play the Blue Jackets down to +120.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.