Top NHL Betting Picks For Tuesday, November 9th (2021)
If the NHL season ended today, the playoff bracket would look a lot different than the preseason projections indicated.
In the East, the Rangers, Flyers, and Blue Jackets would all be in, while the Penguins, Bruins, and Islanders would be on the outside looking in. And not just on the outside looking in, but behind teams like the Red Wings, Devils, and Sabres. Out West, Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose, and Nashville would qualify for the theoretical top eight. Colorado, Vegas, Dallas, and Seattle would not, if you can believe it.
Of course, this is all hypothetical and thankfully for us hockey fans, the season not only doesn’t end today, but we’ve still got a long, long way to go before we start filling out our playoff brackets. Some teams have started out scalding hot, while others just haven’t found their footing. And because of that, there is a ton of hidden value on the board that we’re ready to exploit. Here are three bets I’m making on Tuesday night on the ice.
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Winnipeg Jets ML (+100)
The Jets started out the year terribly, losing their first three games and securing just a single point. In the eight subsequent games, Winnipeg is 6-1-1 and they’ve really turned a corner. They’re in the midst of a six-game homestand and have been one of the league’s best teams on their home ice, winning four of their first five at the Canada Life Centre. The Jets also are “hopeful†to get not just Mark Scheifele back, but Paul Stastny as well.
They’ll take on a Blues team who quite frankly just wants to get home to St. Louis. This game against the Jets will be the last of a four-game, west coast road trip which inexplicably has them traveling all the way up to the great white north after three games on the sunny California coast.
On top of the brutal travel schedule, St. Louis is dealing with COVID cases up and down the roster. In addition to Brayden Schenn hitting the injured list with an upper-body injury, the Blues will also be without three of their regulars – Torey Krug, Kyle Clifford, and Niko Mikkola – due to virus protocols. That’s not an easy thing to overcome on the road, and despite the Blues 7-2-1 start, they’re finally due for all their off-ice misfortune to catch up to them. There are just too many pieces missing from their usual lineup – 22.2% of their opening night skaters, to be exact.
I really like the spot here for Winnipeg at home, and I think this is the equivalent of a “getaway day†mentality for the Blues with a ton of backups and minor leaguers littered throughout the lineup.
Pittsburgh Penguins ML (-115)
The Penguins, like the Blues, are dealing with COVID complications themselves. However, Pittsburgh has been through this all year and really has yet to trot a full lineup out onto the ice. They’ve learned to play as a team, and that’ll help them overcome adversity once again against a bad Blackhawks team.
Head coach Mike Sullivan is in the COVID protocol, but the Penguins have the luxury of turning to assistant coach Todd Reirden in his absence. Reirden has experience behind the bench, as he led the Capitals for two seasons before being relieved of his duties in 2020.
Sidney Crosby is also going to miss tonight’s game with COVID, but he’s only played once so far this year after recovering from offseason surgery. Crosby is irreplaceable, but the Penguins have learned to make do without him for the first month of the year as they’re fifth in the entire NHL in expected goals for this season and fourth in high-danger chances. Everyone is a bad matchup for this struggling Blackhawks team, but Pittsburgh is an especially bad matchup because of their ability to generate offense. Chicago has had all kinds of trouble keeping the puck away from and out of the back of their net.
The Blackhawks are second-to-last in SCF% (scoring chances) and dead-last in xGF% (expected goals). These percentages aren’t just a measure of Chicago’s offensive acumen; they measure the percent of chances for each team in a given game. So, not only can the Blackhawks get absolutely nothing going in the offensive zone, they’re a mess in their own defensive zone. The Penguins make a living out of punishing teams for sloppy puck handling in their own zone, and they did just that the first time these two teams met this season – a 5-2 thrashing in Pittsburgh.
To make matters even worse for Chicago, it really hasn’t mattered who starts in net because both Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen have been equally underwhelming. The Blackhawks have the second-lowest combined save percentage in the league, only ahead of Seattle. With the number of shots the Penguins fire on net per game (35.3, fourth in the league), the Blackhawks are in trouble on their home ice.
New Jersey Devils Under 0.5 1st Period Goals (+105)
Note: Wait for goalie confirmation from Florida and only play this line if Sergei Bobrovsky starts.
The Devils haven’t played poorly this season at all. They’re 5-3-2 with a 60.0% points percentage, which is miles ahead of where everyone expected them to be after ten games – especially after losing Jack Hughes, Miles Wood, and Mackenzie Blackwood for essentially every game so far, as well as missing Dougie Hamilton, Jonathan Bernier, Damon Severson, and Ty Smith for spurts.
However, the Devils have kept themselves afloat and have willed themselves to wins late in games thanks to their five-on-five play. They’ve done absolutely nothing early in games, especially in the first period. Jack Hughes went down with a dislocated shoulder towards the end of the first period in the second game of the year. Up until that point, the Devils had scored three first-period goals in two games – not bad. In the subsequent eight first periods though, New Jersey has totaled an abysmal two goals and has been thoroughly outplayed in the opening frame – winning the CF% battle just once.
They also have absolutely zero semblance of a power play. New Jersey is under 10% on the man-advantage this year, third-to-last in the NHL, and they’ve scored the fewest power-play goals in the league – meaning not only do they not score on five-on-four, they rarely draw penalties. Fewer chances equal fewer goals and a great trend for our under.
The Devils will battle the Florida Panthers and potentially Sergei Bobrovsky, who has turned back the clock so far this season. Potentially because he’s been battling an injury and may not be ready to return just yet. The man known as “Bob†has saved the most goals above expectation this season – 14.4, which is nearly five goals ahead of second place. To put that into context, the gap between Bobrovsky and second-place Frederik Anderson is as wide as the gap between Anderson and 11th-place Martin Jones. This Panthers defense is far too strong for a Jack Hughes-less Devils forward group as well, and getting plus-money here is a gift. As mentioned in the above note, this is only a play if Bobrovsky starts in net.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.