Top NHL Betting Picks For Wednesday, February 23rd (2022)
Wednesday night in the National Hockey league features two of the league’s best teams, but in four of the five games on the docket, the favorite is laying at least -160 on the moneyline.
Tampa Bay will host Edmonton, and while the Oilers have been better since their coaching change, their struggling goaltending could be in for a long night against the high-powered Lightning. And Colorado will travel to Detroit where they’ll be a rare road favorite laying -300 on the moneyline. The only matchup the books are deeming anything close to a toss-up features two of the worst teams in the NHL as Buffalo travels to Montreal to take on the Canadiens in a battle we may just have a play on.
I’ve got a total and a side on tap tonight on the ice. Let’s dive in.
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Montreal Canadiens ML (-110; Caesars)
There haven’t been many reasons to back the Habs this year, but of late, a big reason to do so has been their new coach Martin St. Louis. I feel old just writing that; it feels like last week St. Louis was one of the most skilled playmakers in the NHL, but now he’s rejuvenated the league’s most storied franchise from the worst start to a season in their history.
St. Louis’s tenure in Montreal started just as Dominique Ducharme’s ended – with a lot of losing. The Canadiens dropped each of the first three games that St. Louis was behind the bench, but there was a noticeable pep in their step and an uptick in their energy. Sounds familiar because that’s exactly how St. Louis made his mark as a player in this league. However, since then, Montreal has won three in a row, and they haven’t just beaten up on the other bottom-feeders the NHL has to offer. They notched an overtime win against the Blues (ironically, St. Louis’ first coaching win came against St. Louis), topped the Islanders in a shootout, and thrashed the rival Maple Leafs 5-2 in a game that opened some eyes. Not only are the Habs awake, but their most important player Cole Caufield has also come to life.
I’m also happy to fade a terrible Sabres team against the surging Canadiens. Buffalo is 2-5-1 in their last eight and have been beaten up badly in the previous three. They’ve been outscored 15-7 in the last three games and haven’t beaten a team in the top 25 in points percentage since a victory over Nashville on January 13th.
Montreal is peaking, scoring 11 goals over their last three wins, and it’s the perfect storm against a Sabres team hemorrhaging goals. There’s also a revenge factor here, as Montreal dropped a meeting just over a week ago to the Sabres. We don’t back the Canadiens much, but this is the perfect time to do so. Play them down to -115.
Dallas Stars / Winnipeg Jets Under 6 (-120; BetMGM)
Most books have moved this one down to 5.5, but if you’re a BetMGM member, you can still play this at under 6 -120. My bare minimum is -125, and I wouldn’t advise betting either side of this total at 5.5.
If the playoffs began today, neither the Jets nor Stars would participate. Despite that, this game should have a playoff feel because both sides are fighting for their lives and are fighting to avoid being sellers at the trade deadline. Tight, intense matchups usually feature fewer goals, which is one reason I’m on the under here.
Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t exactly been the Connor Hellebuyck we’re used to, but the team in front of him isn’t helping much. His save percentage is still .914, just .002 below his career average, and his goals against is 2.80, just 0.15 points below his career average. He’s also saved 17.2 goals above expectation, which is still fifth-best in the NHL. The fall of Hellebuyck is massively overblown, and it’s causing Jets totals to be slightly inflated. We’re not going to fall into that trap, especially because he’ll be going up against a young Dallas goaltender who has taken over a crowded crease in the Lone Star State.
Jake Oettinger, a first-round pick out of Boston University, is just 23 years old, but in his goaltending coach’s words: “if you’re good enough, you’re old enough.†And Oettinger is certainly good enough. The young netminder has a sparkling .921 save percentage to go along with a 2.34 goals against average and is in the top 20 in goals saved above expectation despite splitting the crease for much of the year with Braden Holtby. Oettinger is on fire of late, allowing just three goals over his last three games while stopping 101 of 104 shots that were sent his way.
Neither team exactly pours pucks into the net either. Winnipeg is 20th in goals per game (2.88), and Dallas is right behind them in 21st (2.86). And of late, neither team has lit the lamp much. The Stars have just six goals in their last four games, while the Jets have scored just three times in the two games they’ve played over the last week.
Both meetings between these two teams this season have gone to overtime, so the total is a bit inflated as a result. I like the under here, but remember to shop around and not play this one below 6 (-125).
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.